After all the wacky and clueless ways in which the election betting market has swung these past few days, can we finally admit that most of the people who bet money on elections don’t tend to know shit about elections?
For example, people started betting huge on Trump late on Tuesday night, under the mistaken belief that he was ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. But anyone paying proper attention would have known this wasn't the case.
Sports bettings odds tend to pan out, because the people who bet on sports games tend to follow and understand that sport really well. But with election betting, we're very clearly seeing that's not the case.
For months in general, and for days in particular, people have been flooding me with election betting market shifts, and I can't think of a data point that's less relevant. As bad as the polls were, the betting odds were even more laughable.
On the other hand I'd imagine that if you actually follow politics closely, you could do quite well betting on elections, since most of the other bettors are clueless and mistakenly driving the betting odds in your favor.
This isn't betting advice. Disclaimer blah blah blah.
This isn't betting advice. Disclaimer blah blah blah.
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