The second reason is the fact that it is likely a divided Congress, which is considered good because a balance of power = less chance of extreme change of policy, is considered good by markets.
People say that I have changed my views. Actually no, wrote a note on this before the election on the impact on Asia & that is what I have told clients.
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"For Asia, on the portfolio side, the conclusion of the election, especially if decisive, should herald a risk-on environment, which should help with emerging Asia risk assets that have been shunned due to uncertainty of the election."
#1 Coal is going out of fashion fast as countries phase out this cheap but polluting source of energy.
#2 Palm oil got pretty bad press due to deforestation & environmental issues.
So both #1 & #2 export items by Indonesia got issues in terms of growth & sustainability.
So?
Indonesia needs to CHANGE. As a country of 273 million people that'll grow to 331 by 2050 or 21% growth rate, it can't have its #1 & #2 export items to be COAL & PALM OIL.
That's natural resource competitiveness that's going out of style & not to mention unsustainable.
Guess which country is doing best??? Indonesia!!! ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Told you, this Omnibus Law is a good thing despite all the negative op eds.
A lot of people use 538 for their research reports etc & the assumption of a Biden complete takeover or "Blue Wave", meaning taking Congress. Anyway, we'll find out if Nate Silver redeems himself or wrong once more.
Trump MUST TAKE FLORIDA to be in the race or it will be an early call. Florida closes the poll at 7pm or 8am HKT. As 9 million votes casted & counted, the counting will be fast & likely within a couple hours.
So I expect to know Florida by 10am HKT.
Used 538 to brief traders/etc in 2016 & won't be using it again but as most people on the street uses it & good to know where they stand as people care about what Nate says even if he was wrong.
Texas, another Trump has to take. Assume he takes Florida, Texas poll closes 9amHKT
This kid says to a mother who carried him to term, gave birth to him & raise him because she is voting Trump. Says a lot about the brain washing that kid must feel morally justified to mistreat his own mom.
These are the same kind of people that for likes from strangers they would disown their own family over identity politics.
Pew Research Center found that nearly 80% of Trump and Biden supporters said they had few or no friends who supported the other candidate.
Isnโt that nuts?
Makes me wonder if the people are increasingly fragile or their real life relationships are. I cannot for the life of me think of anyone in my life where theyโd behaved this way.
Disowning ur family over a view over politicians who basically lie all the time to gain power? Nuts
It's Monday & we have votes, or precisely 95.5 millions already voted or 44-34% Dem/Rep. The spread in Florida is tightening 8.62M TOTAL (39.1-38% Dem/Rep)
4.64M Mail (45-31% Dem/Rep)
4.28M In Person (45-32% Rep/Dem)
Trump has to take Florida to win & chances aren't negligible.
The gap b/n Biden & Trump is the same as Hillary & say Trump takes Florida & Texas, then he got 192 electoral votes & the race is not that far apart as polls make it seem like, esp if he takes GA, NC & Ohio, which'd be 241 vs 258 Biden.
And if Trump takes Arizona + Pennsylvania then he wins. That's 272.
Meaning, just like 2016, this is not a shoe-in for Biden even if it seems so as Biden lead in polls is pretty high but polls DON'T VOTE. People do.
In 2016, Arie Kapteyn (Dutch Economist for USC) & Robert Cahaly (Republican pollster for Trafalgar Group) saw Trump coming while others didn't as they predicted Trump getting Penn, Michigan, FLorida & NC & he won all.
Let's talk about how they think current polls underestimate.
3 factors they discuss that u should know: 1) Existing polls that use PHONE is outdate b/c who has time to answer 23 mins of phone conversation & tell someone what they really think if they're a Trump supported & so people answer are EXTREME or BORED. Short & anonymous is better.