PA website shows 763K mail-in ballots still to be counted with Trump lead of 165K. At split of mail in ballots observed thus far, this would indicate fairly comfortable Biden victory. But there's reason to believe that rate of Biden gain/100K count is going to slow down. 
2/ PA shows outstanding mail ballots by county and elsewhere shows R/D proportion in each county.
votespa.com/About-Election…
The inventory of Philadelphia+Pittsburgh uncounted mailin is now 165K, which would prob reduce margin by ~103K. Not enough on its own.
votespa.com/About-Election…
The inventory of Philadelphia+Pittsburgh uncounted mailin is now 165K, which would prob reduce margin by ~103K. Not enough on its own.
3/ of the remaining ~600K, there is a slight majority in counties with Republican majority. For example, York, a Republican county, has 77K uncounted.
4/ if all the 763K uncounted break in proportion to registered voters in the county (a big assumption), the lead reduction will be about 61K, with slight margins in Trump's favor in Republican counties partly offsetting Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
5/ if so, Trump could eke out PA. It seems plausible that mail-in even in Rep counties would be biased more heavily to Dems, but this is not necessarily so, as Arizona may be showing. We'll know soon enough. Just saying that there's a possible narrow path for Trump in PA
@phl43 looked at PA data; He's very sharp and I urge people to look at his calculations.
We're looking at data the provenance of which we don't fully understand and which is poorly explained by PA and US media to try to understand situation.
https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1324212917424840705.
We're looking at data the provenance of which we don't fully understand and which is poorly explained by PA and US media to try to understand situation.
Philippe observes that the meaning of 763K relative to the reporting updates is not known to any of us. We'll find out soon enough through counts anyway.
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