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5 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Have a hard time believing reports there are only 120k uncounted ballots remaining in Philadelphia. That would put it at 695k, leaving it short of the 707k total votes cast in 2016.

Turnout declines aren't happening anywhere in PA, including Pittsburgh...
In other words, I'm extremely skeptical that estimate is accurate. Nonetheless, even if it were borne out, it wouldn't alter my thinking on who's likely to finish ahead.
If Philadephia's turnout was in line with similar cities (and there's no real reason to believe it would be way out of line w/ Detroit, Milwaukee, etc.), there might be 200k-250k ballots left to count there - in which case Biden could take the statewide lead w/ Philly alone.
Of course, there are plenty of other PA counties besides Philly where Biden is still poised to gain a *lot* of ground w/ mail ballots. Delaware, Lehigh, Cumberland, Bucks, Monroe, Centre, Allegheny to name a few. This isn't a nail-biter, imo.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
7 Nov
Diving into the data, there are 21 Philly precincts that aren't reporting anywhere near their full vote, all in heavy D areas of the city... results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDe…?
Turnout city-wide is currently at 61.4% of registered voters, but all of these 21 divisions reported less than 30% of RV's ballots counted, with a heavy concentration in the 27th Ward around University City.

And, there are plenty of divisions in the 30%-40% range as well.
If this is where the remaining Philadelphia mail vote is from, it's bound to be even more Biden-friendly than the mail vote of the city as a whole, since almost all of the Trump-friendly precincts in NE/South Philly are at high turnout.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
6 Nov
So far in the seven heavily red PA counties that have reported provisionals, they've represented just 0.9% of all ballots and have only broken for Trump by 3.7% more than his share of the other votes (76.1% vs. 72.4%).

Here's why that's probably not good enough for Trump...
If you were to take those proportions and extrapolate them to the rest of the counties, it would only net Trump about 5k votes (+31k Trump to +26k Biden). Right now, he's on track to finish the remaining mail ballot count down by 50k+ votes. But that's not all...
Modeling off these seven counties would project there are only 57k more provisional ballots to count.

In reality, PA officials have said there are at least 92k that remain to be adjudicated/counted, w/ a much higher share in Philadelphia (17k). That's good news for Biden.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
3 Nov
Not that it can tell us who will win, but its 7:30am and the Election Day vote in FL is already *much* more Republican than the early/mail vote.
It's not like this is unexpected, and it's an important reminder that we're going to see unprecedented partisan polarization between the early/mail batches and the Election Day batches tonight.
For those of you who are saying "oh, it's just one county..." actually no, this pattern is consistent across pretty much every FL county almost an hour in. And the fact Broward Co. is an EDay Dem-GOP tie so far is consistent w/ a strong GOP EDay overperformance vs. early vote.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
1 Nov
Not sure we'll get more "final" national live-interview polls, but here are my average crosstabs (in situations where pollsters polled twice in Oct., "October 2020" includes the first poll and "FInal 2020 Polls" includes the second).
Most striking: stability of the race and Biden's lead. But a strange/fascinating twist: Biden's weakest point, September, was also his high-point w/ non-whites.

Since then, Trump has narrowed Biden's lead w/ Black & Hispanic voters, even as Biden has stretched his lead overall.
Maybe the latter trend is noise, maybe it isn't, we'll see in a few days. But two things that are impossible to call noise:

- Biden has made remarkable gains vs. Clinton among 65+ voters, esp. in the final month
- We're headed for a historic gender canyon, not gap
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
31 Oct
Morning update: Texas reporting 9,669,246 votes cast at the close of early voting. That's 57% of registered voters and 700,020 more votes than were cast in Texas in *all of 2016.*
Largest increases in 2020 early votes cast vs. 2016 total votes cast (TX counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Hays +35%
2. Williamson +28%
3. Denton +28%
4. Comal +26%
5. Fort Bend +25%
6. Collin +24%
7. Travis +17%
8. Guadalupe +16%
9. Ellis +16%
10. Montgomery +16%
The final day of TX early voting was a relatively strong one in the most heavily Hispanic counties. Total votes cast in the six most populous border counties (El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, Starr, Maverick) jumped 9.3%, vs. 6.2% everywhere else in TX.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
29 Oct
Morning update: Texas just surpassed 95% of its 2016 total votes cast w/ two days of early voting & Election Day left to go. We're just headed for a massive, unprecedented turnout there (and a lot of other places).
Top TX counties in current '20 votes cast vs. '16 total votes cast (pop. growth a factor here):

1. Hays +20%
2. Montgomery +18%
3. Williamson +15%
4. Denton +14%
5. Comal +14%
6. Collin +12%
7. Fort Bend +11%
8. Rockwall +6%
9. Travis +6%
10. Guadalupe +5%
The major TX counties (100k+ registrants) with the highest turnout of registered voters so far are all heavily suburban:

1. Montgomery 65%
2. Collin 62%
3. Williamson 62%
4. Comal 61%
5. Fort Bend 61%
Read 4 tweets

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