Not sure we'll get more "final" national live-interview polls, but here are my average crosstabs (in situations where pollsters polled twice in Oct., "October 2020" includes the first poll and "FInal 2020 Polls" includes the second).
Most striking: stability of the race and Biden's lead. But a strange/fascinating twist: Biden's weakest point, September, was also his high-point w/ non-whites.
Since then, Trump has narrowed Biden's lead w/ Black & Hispanic voters, even as Biden has stretched his lead overall.
Maybe the latter trend is noise, maybe it isn't, we'll see in a few days. But two things that are impossible to call noise:
- Biden has made remarkable gains vs. Clinton among 65+ voters, esp. in the final month
- We're headed for a historic gender canyon, not gap
Took the @CookPolitical swingometer for one last spin. Here's what it spits out when you plug in the demographic splits in final live-interview national polls (even assuming a 10% turnout bump among non-college whites and 5% bump for everyone else). cookpolitical.com/swingometer
To be clear, this isn't the Electoral map I'd draw if I were entering an office pool, etc. But if the average of final live-interview national polls were right, this kind of popular vote margin wouldn't be out of the question.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Morning update: Texas reporting 9,669,246 votes cast at the close of early voting. That's 57% of registered voters and 700,020 more votes than were cast in Texas in *all of 2016.*
Largest increases in 2020 early votes cast vs. 2016 total votes cast (TX counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):
The final day of TX early voting was a relatively strong one in the most heavily Hispanic counties. Total votes cast in the six most populous border counties (El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, Starr, Maverick) jumped 9.3%, vs. 6.2% everywhere else in TX.
Morning update: Texas just surpassed 95% of its 2016 total votes cast w/ two days of early voting & Election Day left to go. We're just headed for a massive, unprecedented turnout there (and a lot of other places).
Top TX counties in current '20 votes cast vs. '16 total votes cast (pop. growth a factor here):
In Sumter Co., FL, as of this morning 72,695 out of 105,612 registered voters (69%) have already voted - which I believe is the highest turnout rate outside of auto-VBM states.
Although we know that Trump is likely to better in the EDay vote than the early vote virtually everywhere, there's not *that* huge a difference between the Sumter voters who have voted so far and those who haven't...
Among the 72,695 Sumter voters who have cast ballots, they break down:
58% R
25% D
17% NPA/Other
Here's the breakdown of the 32,917 Sumter registrants who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
Tfw you've been devouring hundreds of district-level polls for decades and everyone has suddenly woken up to how instructive they can be.
The truth is, the majority of presidential race polling is conducted at the *district,* not state or national level.
Most of it is never made public by parties/PACs, but is of high quality b/c it's conducted to make critical resource allocation decisions in House races.
Four years ago, these district-level polls showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in heavily white working-class districts (see below), but many people overlooked them.
Breathtaking: statewide, Texas just surpassed 80% of its total 2016 votes cast, leading the nation. And there's still more than a week of voting to go.
Also, tbh the dropbox issue was never going to have that big an impact on turnout b/c a relatively tiny share of TX voters is eligible to vote by mail to begin with.
You know what will have a big impact on TX's outcome? Turnout in the heavily Hispanic border counties, which is currently at ~32% of registered voters compared to 50%+ in TX's major metro suburbs.
On one hand, TX isn't (and was never) poised to be a "tipping point" for 270 EVs. On the other, even a modest investment in several smaller, low-turnout TX media markets could now determine which way TX tips.