Morning update: Texas reporting 9,669,246 votes cast at the close of early voting. That's 57% of registered voters and 700,020 more votes than were cast in Texas in *all of 2016.*
Largest increases in 2020 early votes cast vs. 2016 total votes cast (TX counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Hays +35%
2. Williamson +28%
3. Denton +28%
4. Comal +26%
5. Fort Bend +25%
6. Collin +24%
7. Travis +17%
8. Guadalupe +16%
9. Ellis +16%
10. Montgomery +16%
The final day of TX early voting was a relatively strong one in the most heavily Hispanic counties. Total votes cast in the six most populous border counties (El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, Starr, Maverick) jumped 9.3%, vs. 6.2% everywhere else in TX.
It's quite possible Texas will cast more than 12 million votes in this election. That would be a massive increase after 8.96 million votes cast in 2016 and 8.37 million cast in 2018.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Redistrict

29 Oct
Morning update: Texas just surpassed 95% of its 2016 total votes cast w/ two days of early voting & Election Day left to go. We're just headed for a massive, unprecedented turnout there (and a lot of other places).
Top TX counties in current '20 votes cast vs. '16 total votes cast (pop. growth a factor here):

1. Hays +20%
2. Montgomery +18%
3. Williamson +15%
4. Denton +14%
5. Comal +14%
6. Collin +12%
7. Fort Bend +11%
8. Rockwall +6%
9. Travis +6%
10. Guadalupe +5%
The major TX counties (100k+ registrants) with the highest turnout of registered voters so far are all heavily suburban:

1. Montgomery 65%
2. Collin 62%
3. Williamson 62%
4. Comal 61%
5. Fort Bend 61%
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
In Sumter Co., FL, as of this morning 72,695 out of 105,612 registered voters (69%) have already voted - which I believe is the highest turnout rate outside of auto-VBM states.
Although we know that Trump is likely to better in the EDay vote than the early vote virtually everywhere, there's not *that* huge a difference between the Sumter voters who have voted so far and those who haven't...
Among the 72,695 Sumter voters who have cast ballots, they break down:

58% R
25% D
17% NPA/Other

Here's the breakdown of the 32,917 Sumter registrants who *haven't* yet cast ballots:

53% R
21% D
26% NPA/Other
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
Tfw you've been devouring hundreds of district-level polls for decades and everyone has suddenly woken up to how instructive they can be.
The truth is, the majority of presidential race polling is conducted at the *district,* not state or national level.

Most of it is never made public by parties/PACs, but is of high quality b/c it's conducted to make critical resource allocation decisions in House races.
Four years ago, these district-level polls showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in heavily white working-class districts (see below), but many people overlooked them.
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
Breathtaking: statewide, Texas just surpassed 80% of its total 2016 votes cast, leading the nation. And there's still more than a week of voting to go.
Also, tbh the dropbox issue was never going to have that big an impact on turnout b/c a relatively tiny share of TX voters is eligible to vote by mail to begin with.
You know what will have a big impact on TX's outcome? Turnout in the heavily Hispanic border counties, which is currently at ~32% of registered voters compared to 50%+ in TX's major metro suburbs.
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
On one hand, TX isn't (and was never) poised to be a "tipping point" for 270 EVs. On the other, even a modest investment in several smaller, low-turnout TX media markets could now determine which way TX tips.
Highest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Collin (Trump +17 in '16): 48%
2. Williamson (Trump +10): 48%
3. Denton (Trump +20): 47%
4. Comal (Trump +50): 46%
5. Brazoria (Trump +25): 44%
Lowest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Webb (Clinton +52 in '16): 21%
2. Bell (Trump +15): 27%
3. Cameron (Clinton +33): 29%
4. El Paso (Clinton +43): 30%
5. Hidalgo (Clinton +41): 31%
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Here are my updated demographic splits in average crosstabs of live-interview national polls, w/ new @QuinnipiacPoll thrown into the October mix.

A few breathtaking splits:
- Biden now +25 w/ women
- Biden now +10 w/ seniors
In my view, the biggest "tell" Trafalgar etc. are off the mark? Private, district-level GOP polling conducted to make spending decisions backs up what we're seeing in averages of live-interview polls: Trump doing terribly w/ college whites/women into October.
The only group where we're seeing improvement in Trump's margin vs. '16? Hispanic voters.

Today, live-interview average has Trump down 27 points, vs. 38 points per @UpshotNYT's average of final '16 polls.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!