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I was digging through some notes from reading @AnnieDuke book: Thinking in Bets.
Loved this book and her podcast with @ritholtz
on Masters-in-business.
This is a key book for anyone interested in trading/investing
Here are some of my takeaways and favorite quotes.
I was digging through some notes from reading @AnnieDuke book: Thinking in Bets.
Loved this book and her podcast with @ritholtz
on Masters-in-business.
This is a key book for anyone interested in trading/investing
Here are some of my takeaways and favorite quotes.
1. How sure are you of a belief you hold if asked, “Wanna bet $1000 your belief is correct?”
Are you still 100% sure or maybe only 70%?
This helps to ensure you’re not blindly defending your belief and instead inviting skepticism and a search for the best information.
Are you still 100% sure or maybe only 70%?
This helps to ensure you’re not blindly defending your belief and instead inviting skepticism and a search for the best information.
2. “Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out:
The quality of our decisions and luck.
Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”
The quality of our decisions and luck.
Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”
3. We have a tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome.
4. Poker players have a word for this:
“Resulting”
"When I started playing poker, more experienced players warned me about the dangers of resulting, cautioning me to resist the temptation to change my strategy just because a few hands didn’t turn out well in the short run.”
“Resulting”
"When I started playing poker, more experienced players warned me about the dangers of resulting, cautioning me to resist the temptation to change my strategy just because a few hands didn’t turn out well in the short run.”
5. Resulting is a close companion of hindsight bias.
Which is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable.
When we say, “I should have known that would happen,” or, “I should have seen it coming,” we are succumbing to hindsight bias.”
Which is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable.
When we say, “I should have known that would happen,” or, “I should have seen it coming,” we are succumbing to hindsight bias.”
6. You have games of complete information such as chess where outcomes are closely tied to decision quality.
Which is why computers are better at chess than poker.
Which is why computers are better at chess than poker.
7. Poker is a game of incomplete information.
It is a game where luck plays a large role and the best decision will not always result in the best outcome.
Which is how the real world works
It is a game where luck plays a large role and the best decision will not always result in the best outcome.
Which is how the real world works
8. We are biased to want to reflexively field bad outcomes as all luck or good ones as all skill.
9. Viewing negative outcomes as a result of bad luck means you miss opportunities to learn from your mistakes and improve your decisions.
Whereas claiming skill was the main factor in good outcomes means you will likely repeat the decisions that weren’t ideal.
Whereas claiming skill was the main factor in good outcomes means you will likely repeat the decisions that weren’t ideal.
10. “We all have a blind spot about recognizing our biases.
The surprise is that blind-spot bias is greater the smarter you are.”
The surprise is that blind-spot bias is greater the smarter you are.”
11. “It’s easy to win a bet against someone who takes extreme positions.”
12. Its easier to be objective when new information is presented if your previous stance was;
“I was 75% but now I’m 50%.”
As its easier to swallow then saying;
“I thought I was right but now I’m wrong.”
“I was 75% but now I’m 50%.”
As its easier to swallow then saying;
“I thought I was right but now I’m wrong.”
13. “The benefits of recognizing just a few extra learning opportunities compound over time.
The cumulative effect of being a little better at decision-making, like compounding interest, can have huge effects in the long run on everything that we do.”
The cumulative effect of being a little better at decision-making, like compounding interest, can have huge effects in the long run on everything that we do.”
14. Utilise negative visualization, or a premortem to improve decision making by visualizing why you failed to reach your goal.
Similar to Mungers “Invert, always invert.”
Working from the end result backward can help you anticipate potential obstacles.
Similar to Mungers “Invert, always invert.”
Working from the end result backward can help you anticipate potential obstacles.
15. “Our problem is that we’re ticker watchers of our own lives.
Happiness is not best measured by looking at the ticker, zooming in, and magnifying moment-by-moment or day-by-day movements.
We would be better off thinking about our happiness as a long-term stock holding.”
Happiness is not best measured by looking at the ticker, zooming in, and magnifying moment-by-moment or day-by-day movements.
We would be better off thinking about our happiness as a long-term stock holding.”
16. A great decision is the result of a good process - not that it has a great outcome.
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