The timing could be better 🥺 but our major review paper on past climates has just dropped in @ScienceMagazine. In this review, we argue that past climate climates are key to predicting the future 🗝️ science.sciencemag.org/content/370/65…
Our future climate trajectory is still unknown, but it's going to be toasty: comparable to many of the warm climates of the past 100 million years.
Earth history tells us what the climate system does under higher carbon dioxide. Not only should we study it more, but we should use paleoclimates in model evaluation. For example, to test whether the high ECS in some of the new climate models is legit. 🧐
Past climates also tell us things about ice sheets, the water cycle, El Niño...things for which we don't have very certain future predictions. Lots of work to be done on this front!
Past climate is both the context for the future, and the key to understanding the physics of climate change.
And finally, you can download the data from the figures on GitHub and plot your own graphs of temperature and carbon dioxide through Earth history! github.com/jesstierney/Pa…
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Our paper on Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling and climate sensitivity is out today in @nature! This represents four years of work, so it feels really good to see it released. Here's a short thread on what it means... nature.com/articles/s4158…
First we compile almost 2,000 geological measurements of sea-surface temperature, which believe me took some time! Then, we ran new simulations of the LGM with the @NCAR_Science CESM model, and used data assimilation to combine the info. This gives us global maps of temperature!
This new analysis suggests that globally, the LGM was 6C (11F) colder than preindustrial times. This is a little colder some previous estimates but agrees well w/ others
While there is certainly nothing wrong with making individual low-carbon choices, I am increasingly concerned with how the #actonclimate movement is emphasizing individual lifestyle over collective action. There are two problems with this (thread).
One is that framing the issue in terms of lifestyle carries with it the race/class/health/wealth point of view of the framer. But not everyone's relationship with #climatechange is the same. This was the major critique of late 20th century environmentalism hcn.org/issues/42.2/th…
The second is that individual choices are small in terms of cutting carbon. Aside from having a kid (high impact b/c another carbon footprint is added), aviation, the second most carbon-intensive individual activity, is only 4-5% of human radiative forcing sciencedirect.com/science/articl…