Models.
The big analytical winners here are the modelers. If you look at @NateSilver538’s model, for example, this results is at the edge of the fat part of his distribution. @micahcohen
I bought this shirt one day in 2015 on which I had back-to-back meetings with two heads of NSD: the incumbent, John Carlin, at DOJ, and @DavidKris, one of his predecessors, whom I was meeting for a drink at the Hotel Sofitel afterwards.
It was cloudy out, but I decided to walk the several blocks between DOJ and the Sofitel, which is right next to the White House. Mistake. A few blocks into the walk, the sky opened up, there was not a cab in sight, and I and my suit were completely drenched.
The President of the United States has declared this week, "National Character Counts Week." Let's examine his proclamation line by line: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
"The foundation of any free and virtuous society is the moral character of its people."
I wholeheartedly agree.
"Personal responsibility, integrity, and the other values which define our unique American spirit underpin our system of self-government and inspire us to continue working toward a more perfect Union. "
The person who should write such a thread is @BobbyChesney, who did pioneering studies of how conspiracy and material support law changes pushed the criminal law further and further to the left of boom.
But the bottom line as pertains to this case is threefold: (1) conspiracy law is very broad. If you agree with one other person (or 12) to commit a serious felony and take a single overt act in furtherance of that agreement, you are guilty.
(2) under case law, the FBI is legally allowed to get deeply involved in facilitating your conspiracy by way of investigating it without getting anywhere near the line of entrapment, which requires that they induce you to commit the crime.