Why are the large numbers of Arizona mail ballots breaking for Trump and the Pennsylvania ballots breaking for Biden? A couple of reasons...
In Pennsylvania, most voters who requested mail ballots for the primary automatically had their requests renewed for the general. Since the Democratic primary was contested, there were a large number of Democrats who had their requests rolled over to the general
Of course, Pennsylvania election officials could not begin processing any mail ballots until election day. The large number of returned ballots heavily favor the Democrats
In contrast, the Arizona mail ballots are more evenly divided by partisanship. Democrats returned their ballots earlier. Arizona election officials began processing mail ballots sooner, so the mail ballots returned later, and now needing to be counted, are more Republican

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More from @ElectProject

5 Nov
Biden's Nevada lead is going to expand. I imagine there are furious decision desk discussions happening right now as to whether or not to call Nevada for Biden. Given some media calls for Arizona, this would effectively make Biden the presumptive president-elect
The media orgs that haven't called Arizona might thus hesitate to call Nevada because they don't want to foster the perception that their collective calls mean Biden is the presumptive president-elect
I honestly don't know how Arizona shakes out. Biden looks good, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty. I wouldn't have called it yet
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
I posted PRELIMINARY estimates of the 2020 state and national turnout and voting-eligible population turnout rates

160 million people voted

Turnout rate: 66.9%

Highest turnout rate since 1900: 73.7%

electproject.org/2020g
That is not a typo. The 2020 presidential election had the highest turnout rate in 120 years. There is still a fair amount of guesswork involving outstanding ballots to be counted. I will continue to refine these estimates over the coming weeks
2020's turnout in historical perspective. Highest in a 120 years, but not an all-time high Image
Read 6 tweets
3 Nov
#earlyvote morning update 11/3

At least 100 million people voted prior to Election Day in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
These are morning reports that include activity up to last night, so at least 100 million people really did vote before Election Day
This #earlyvote update includes reports from FL, GA, MT, NC, NY (finally sent me their absentee report), PA, VA, and WI
Read 10 tweets
3 Nov
#earlyvote evening update 11/2

At least 98 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
WA #earlyvote update posted

Washington becomes the 3rd state to exceed their 2016 total vote in their 2020 early vote 🥳

Nationally, at least 98.4 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Washington turnout is going to go higher. This all-mail ballot state has the longest post-election period of accepting mail ballots, if the ballot has a postmark on or before Election Day
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
#earlyvote afternoon update 11/2

At least 97 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
This update includes reports from AZ and MI
IA, KS, and MO #earlyvote updates posted. Nationally, at least 97.3 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Read 9 tweets
2 Nov
#earlyvote noon update 11/2

At least 96 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
This report includes updates from AR, DC, IL, and MD
MN and WY #earlyvote updates posted. At least 96.2 million people have voted in the 2020 general election. @MNSecofState is indicating we may get a second update today, which is a treat since they've been posting only on Fridays electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Read 6 tweets

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