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Jed Shugerman Profile picture
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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Philadelphia just released a new batch of absentee votes:
Out of 5799 ballots:
5073 Biden (87%)
726 Trump (13%)
Trump's lead is down to 18,229.

There are more than 53,000 Philly ballots still to count.

At this consistent rate, Philly alone will give Biden a 20,000 lead.
Georgia:
Clayton County just released 268 ballots:
249 for Biden (93%)
**19** for Trump (7%)
Trump's lead is down to **1,479**

And there are a lot of Biden net votes left in Atlanta and Savannah.
Clayton just reported 816 ballots:
709 for Biden (87%)
107 for Trump (13%)
602 net Biden... with more to come soon.

Trump's Georgia lead is down to **665** votes.
Kornacki: "We are maybe one more batch away from Biden taking the lead in Georgia."
BREAKING 4:20AM:
Biden has just taken the lead in GEORGIA by 917 VOTES.

It is implausible that he loses this lead or loses Nevada (or Pennsylvania).
That means Biden has just taken a solid, reliable lead in 275 Electoral Votes without needing Pennsylvania.
Game over.
MAP:

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More from @jedshug

Jed Shugerman Profile picture
4 Nov
I'm seeing that Fox News just called Arizona for Biden.

Big, if right.
Biden now has a clear path to 270 without waiting for Pennsylvania.
This is the map with Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but not Pennsylvania or ME2 or NE2:

Biden 279 (a win)
Trump 249
(leaving PA undecided).
I am getting a ton of questions about why Michigan and Wisconsin look red right now.
Those counts right now are part of the infamous "red mirage" we've been talking about since August, because we knew they wouldn't count any Dem-dominated mail/absentee votes.
Read 5 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
30 Oct
The 8th Cir ruled 2-1 last night that Minnesota must set aside any ballots postmarked on time but arriving after election day.

One of the 2 is viciously anti-gay Trump appointee Leonard Grasz, whose ABA panel unanimously declared "not qualified."
americanbar.org/advocacy/gover…
The majority claims to rely on "state legislatures" as the Constitution's rule, but invents a reason to ignore MN legislation delegating power to MN Sec of State to adopt "alternatives" in case of an order like the state court order here.
Here's the majority, then the dissent:
Here's the dissent.
Folks, this decision is a joke. This 2-1 majority purports to defer to state legislatures, but ignores state legislation and the state legislature, as well as a state court.
This "federalism" is really just federal judges' partisan judicial activism.
Read 4 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
27 Oct
In case you missed it, Gorsuch:
* Celebrated legislative supremacy as a Founding principle
* Praised legislators over judges for their fact-finding, judgment, & consensus
* Criticized judges who "sweep in" to address problems

Gorsuch is going to love the next Congress.
Who am I kidding. Gorsuch just likes this Republican legislature restricting voting access.

Phony originalism. Just reading a single clause how he likes. Not a single historical source.

Text of DNC v. Wisconsin State Legislature here. Full of whoppers.
drive.google.com/file/d/1tcsRiv…
Kagan hits Kavanaugh hard in this footnote, after Kavanaugh puts the Trump Party Line on mailed ballots into a Supreme Court opinion. You can't make this stuff up.

This is an already-packed court, folks.
Read 4 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
26 Oct
The Court question should be disentangled into at least 2 questions:
1) What is the right size for a Supreme Court?
(Is it 9? No.)
2) What is the right method for judicial selection?
(The current model? Hell no.)

If we are going to change one, change both in a balanced way.
I have concerns about the @danepps @GaneshSitaraman 5/5/5 proposal, because I think the existing conservative Justices will play hardball harder.
But it moves the debate forward by thinking creatively about both questions, and I haven’t seen anything better that addresses both.
For what it’s worth, I suggest:
1) President nominate 1 Justice every 2 years (2 per 4 yr term)...
Let size increase. No term limits.

2) But with a statutory merit model of bipartisan House committee (perhaps with input of governors, the bar...) creating a short list/slate.
Read 5 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
22 Oct
The progressive knee-jerk rejection of originalism over the past 40 years & in a fever pitch in 2020 is one of the sloppiest own-goals I’ve seen in law.

The left doesn’t have to adopt it. But to suggest it’s in bad faith & ignorant is, among many things, unfair & unwise.
Hear me out right here on why the left should adopt, appropriate, and fix originalism.
Better yet, hear Amy Coney Barrett herself show you how to find an originalist right to privacy in the Bill of Rights! She doesn’t even know it, but she’s right:
3/ As a progressive small-d democrat, I think the best way to read law is how the public understood what they ratified (&how the people’s legislators understood what they enacted & its broader purposes), more than how judges later interpreted it. Judges have usually been worse...
Read 10 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
20 Oct
The GOP's electoral college advantage (gap between national polling averge & the tipping-point-state average) is ~ 4%:

On @FiveThirtyEight, national avg is Biden +10.3%
PA, the tipping-point-270 state is +6.4%

That means Dems need to win by at least 4% to squeak past 270.
We won't know final gap for a while, but this is a bigger gap than 2016, when Clinton won nationally 2.1%, but lost tipping-point states by > 1%.

One way to fix this gap by Congressional majority vote (and referenda):
Statehood for DC, Puerto Rico & North/South California
2/
3/ I meant " < 1%"

Anyway, keep a Federal District w/ 3 electors for the popular vote winner. (h/t @imillhiser)
That's 11 more electors.
The winner needs a majority of the new 549 = 275 (odd numbers are good)...
Read 4 tweets

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