Good morning from Washington! 5.30am here. My dreams are now entirely made up of vote margins. US went to sleep Wednesday night with the 5 big states yet to call. Wakes on Friday to the same. But we are edging towards a result...
Big change of course is Georgia. Biden 917 votes ahead, 2ish% to count. This doesn’t guarantee victory there. Military ballots still to come in (likely good for Trump, don’t know how many). Biden team yesterday said it was touch+go. But 36hr trend has been towards Biden.
Worth noting just how remarkable it is Dems could win Georgia. Last blue in 1992. Republican win margins in last five elections: 11.7% (2000), 16.6% (04), 5.2% (08), 7.8% (12), 5.2% (16). Part of the Deep South may have flipped on Trump.
Huge turnout made Georgia competitive. Almost 5m voted this time. 4.1m in 2016 so huge jump. When I visited pre-election for piece below Dems confident many new voters registered were young + African-American, groups they do well with. Biden + Harris visited too.
Other remaining states also look tricky for Trump. Pennsylvania. The president’s disappearing vote margin below. Down to 18k votes ahead. 160k votes to be counted, overwhelmingly postal. Includes 50k from (very blue) Philadelphia.
Biden wins here, game over.
Trump looks good in N Carolina, both camps agree. So he needs to somehow regain Georgia lead, hold off in Pennsylvania + overtake in either Nevada or Arizona. Biden up 11k in first, 47k in second. Trump’s been catching up but lots of postal ballots to count. A tough, tough ask.
Last tweet - timings. A key Nevada county publishing results 5pm UK. Likewise a key Arizona county at 4pm UK. Pennsylvania has 160k votes being counted so not v close. Georgia is so tight may be fair while before broadcasters make any call. So result close but not v imminent.
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John Bolton:
"...All candidates are entitled to pursue appropriate election-law remedies if they have evidence supporting their claims. They should certainly not lie. The 1st Republican president was called 'Honest Abe' for a reason"
1/
Mitt Romney, Repub Utah senator, on Trump
"He is wrong to say the election was rigged, corrupt and stolen - doing so damages the cause of freedom here and around the world... and recklessly inflames destructive and dangerous passions."
2/
Pat Toomey, Repub Pennsylvania senator
“There’s simply no evidence anyone has shown me of any widespread corruption or fraud"
“The president’s speech last night was very disturbing to me because he made very, very serious allegations without any evidence to support it"
3/
Good morning! The never-ending election continues. 5.30am in DC. Counting through the night. Both Trump + Biden still have pathways as Tuesday’s election stretches into Thurs. Harder for president, but not done yet. On and on and on it goes.
Where things stand
NEVADA
Biden 8k-ish up. 86% counted
ARIZONA
Biden 68k-ish up. 86% counted
(Win both, Biden is president)
N CAROLINA
Trump 77k-ish up. 95% counted
GEORGIA
Trump 18k-ish up. 96% counted
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 165k-ish up. 89% counted
(Alaska tbc, will be R)
The basic dynamics:
Can Trump erase Biden’s margins in Nevada and Arizona? Both AP + Fox called Arizona for B. Trump camp insisting they’ll win.
Can Biden overtake Trump in Georgia + Pennsylvania? Every vote drop (mainly postal) narrows Trump’s leads.
NEW: Trump campaign briefing call going on. They claim Trump will Pennsylvania with 40k votes. "We feel like the president is in a very, very very good position." Very bullish. They are not backing down.
Trump campaign adviser @JasonMillerinDC says Trump will win Arizona. "Anyone who has called this race is just plain wrong.”
Trump campaign manager @BillStepien: "If we count all legally cast ballots we believe the president will win.”