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Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
At least 6.6 million more people voted for Trump in 2020 than 2016.
Current Trump vote: 69,655,389
2016 Trump vote: 62,985,106

More than a 10% increase!
He massively drove up turnout
(As Trump camp always predicted)
And yes of course Dems also shot up their votes.

Current Biden 2020 count: 73,738,178 (still counting)
Hillary Clinton 2016 count: 65,853,625
(For those asking, I pointed out the Trump vote surge figures as a big qu in the 2020 campaign was whether Trump camp would drive up turnout as they claimed. They did, just - it appears - not by enough)

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More from @benrileysmith

Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
6 Nov
The Republican backlash is now fully on

John Bolton:
"...All candidates are entitled to pursue appropriate election-law remedies if they have evidence supporting their claims. They should certainly not lie. The 1st Republican president was called 'Honest Abe' for a reason"
1/
Mitt Romney, Repub Utah senator, on Trump
"He is wrong to say the election was rigged, corrupt and stolen - doing so damages the cause of freedom here and around the world... and recklessly inflames destructive and dangerous passions."
2/
Pat Toomey, Repub Pennsylvania senator
“There’s simply no evidence anyone has shown me of any widespread corruption or fraud"
“The president’s speech last night was very disturbing to me because he made very, very serious allegations without any evidence to support it"
3/
Read 5 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
6 Nov
Good morning from Washington! 5.30am here. My dreams are now entirely made up of vote margins. US went to sleep Wednesday night with the 5 big states yet to call. Wakes on Friday to the same. But we are edging towards a result...
Big change of course is Georgia. Biden 917 votes ahead, 2ish% to count. This doesn’t guarantee victory there. Military ballots still to come in (likely good for Trump, don’t know how many). Biden team yesterday said it was touch+go. But 36hr trend has been towards Biden.
Worth noting just how remarkable it is Dems could win Georgia. Last blue in 1992. Republican win margins in last five elections: 11.7% (2000), 16.6% (04), 5.2% (08), 7.8% (12), 5.2% (16). Part of the Deep South may have flipped on Trump.
Read 7 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: Biden campaign briefing

They say Trump's legal challenges are '"meritless" and it is "inevitable" Biden will win this election. More to follow.
Biden camp say counting will be done TODAY
Biden camp: ‘At the end of the day we will win by a sizeable number of votes in Pennsylvania.” (They are behind right now)
Read 9 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: Trump campaign going v hard in a briefing call happening now about the election.

Campaign manager @BillStepien: "The Democrats lying, cheating and stealing is running rampant all over this country.”
Trump campaign setting up a hotline and website for people across the country to flag election irregularities.
Trump campaign manager @BillStepien on what they allege is happening as votes come in for Biden.

"It is a disgrace. The American people deserve better. Our democracy deserves better.”

(Short on specifics and of course contested by Dems)
Read 10 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
5 Nov
Good morning! The never-ending election continues. 5.30am in DC. Counting through the night. Both Trump + Biden still have pathways as Tuesday’s election stretches into Thurs. Harder for president, but not done yet. On and on and on it goes.
Where things stand

NEVADA
Biden 8k-ish up. 86% counted

ARIZONA
Biden 68k-ish up. 86% counted

(Win both, Biden is president)

N CAROLINA
Trump 77k-ish up. 95% counted

GEORGIA
Trump 18k-ish up. 96% counted

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 165k-ish up. 89% counted

(Alaska tbc, will be R)
The basic dynamics:

Can Trump erase Biden’s margins in Nevada and Arizona? Both AP + Fox called Arizona for B. Trump camp insisting they’ll win.

Can Biden overtake Trump in Georgia + Pennsylvania? Every vote drop (mainly postal) narrows Trump’s leads.

(N Carolina expected R)
Read 7 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
4 Nov
NEW: Trump campaign briefing call going on. They claim Trump will Pennsylvania with 40k votes. "We feel like the president is in a very, very very good position." Very bullish. They are not backing down.
Trump campaign adviser @JasonMillerinDC says Trump will win Arizona. "Anyone who has called this race is just plain wrong.”
Trump campaign manager @BillStepien: "If we count all legally cast ballots we believe the president will win.”
Read 12 tweets

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