YouGov voting intention puts Labour 5 points ahead of the Tories
L 40 (+2)
C 35 (-3)
LD 7 (+1)
BXP (+2)
** It'll cause a shiver down Tory spines but individual C and L changes IS within +/-3 margin of error (just)
BUT some notable changes:
BUT....
If you do a comparison with Oct 21/22
** Leave voters two weeks ago was C 60, L 13. In the current poll Leave voters C 56, L 20
** Two weeks ago 85% of GE2019 Tory voters would vote Tory again, now 78%. The L % unchanged at 87%
** BXP is bouncing around and so their two relaunches have had no measurable impact - over the last 4 weeks their poll number has been 5%, 3%, 4%, 6% so too early to say they're keyh. The amount they're eating into GE2019 Tory vote in latest poll (7%) similar to Oct 21/22 (5%)
** Tories have a strong grip on the over 65s. But it's narrowed noticeably. Tories had 31 point lead over Labour in over 65s now, compared to 45 points 2 weeks ago
**The other notable thing is a marked drop in men supporting the Tories. Was 43% two weeks ago. Now 36%
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Interestingly emphatic message from a govt source that arrival of President Elect Biden does *not* make a difference to their approach to Brexit. We're in the final countdown on brexit - 5 to 10 days left - and big gaps remain.
1/
2/ This despite it being likely that Biden's arrival does change the context: next US administration will give more credence to Irish viewpoint on Good Friday Agreement. No reason to think Biden will alter September view that no EU-UK trade deal means no UK-US trade deal
3/ Are we tiptoeing closer to no trade deal? The UK government is thinking about argument to make over why the EU Commission hasn't treated us fairly. Gvt dug in on the Internal Market bill. Dominic Raab suggested the EU putting peace in NI at risk this morning.
NOW: EHRC report into Labour and antisemitism
- Culture which “at worst” “could be seen to accept” antisemitism
- Serious failings in leadership
- There WERE unlawful acts of harassment and discriminations
- some complaints not investigated
- evidence of “political interference” in handling AS complaints sometimes based on press interest not consistent criteria
- How the Labour Party broke the law twice:
By allowing “agents” to break equality law anti Semitic tropes and suggesting complaints were fake or smears. As these people are acting as agents, Labour is responsible
Tonight Sheffield mayor Dan Jarvis said he saw the “dead hand of the Treasury” behind the negotiations giving them insufficient money. Similar claims from Manchester leaders this week.
2/ There WAS a Treasury official as well as Treasury Chief Secretary Steve Barclay on Monday’s call with Manc leaders. Tho they weren’t on Tuesday’s calls when talks collapsed
They laid down certain principles like refusing to have regional increases to 67% salary scheme
But...
3/ Sky News understands that the pot the Treasury gave to No10 for negotiations with all the local authorities heading into tier 3 was SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than the sums being discussed for just Manchester.
Talking to both sides in Greater Manchester dispute
* GM this morning wanted £75m, gvt offered £55
* Officials advised gvt that GM leaders were prepared to do a deal at £60m
* But Andy Burnham refused to go below £65m
* GM insisting on getting more than Lancashire and Liverpool
Both sides agree these facts. Both sides agree that the negotiations fell down over a £5 million gap
Government couldn’t accept on principles GM getting a better deal than Lancashire / Liverpool otherwise lots of fresh negotiations would be needed elsewhere
Not clear now what happens to the £60m on offer from central gvt - will the people of Manchester lose out because of no deal?
BREAKING: Boris Johnson says the UK must prepared for no trade deal with the EU from Jan 1
Says EU not willing to give UK a Canada style deal
If the EU comes back "with a fundamental change of opinion" then the UK will listen. But says that doesn't sound likely after the summit
“Now is the time for our businesses to get ready. And we’re willing to discuss the practicalities”.
"Given they have refused to negotiate" properly for the last few months and want control over our laws in a way that would be unacceptable to a sovereign state, it is time to prepare for a deal which is trading more like Australia.