Thread by @SamCoatesSky

Interestingly emphatic message from a govt source that arrival of President Elect Biden does *not* make a difference to their approach to Brexit. We're in the final countdown on brexit - 5 to 10 days left - and big gaps remain.
1/

2/ This despite it being likely that Biden's arrival does change the context: next US administration will give more credence to Irish viewpoint on Good Friday Agreement. No reason to think Biden will alter September view that no EU-UK trade deal means no UK-US trade deal

3/ Are we tiptoeing closer to no trade deal? The UK government is thinking about argument to make over why the EU Commission hasn't treated us fairly. Gvt dug in on the Internal Market bill. Dominic Raab suggested the EU putting peace in NI at risk this morning.

4/ Remember the recent past with Biden: supported by similar people who helped President Obama say UK wd be at the "back of the queue" for a trade deal. Disobliging comments from Democrats like Tommy Vietor in papers. Labour clearly forging relations

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b…

5/ Plenty of people in gvt think we WILL get a deal, bar last minute fireworks. Too many fires elsewhere to put out.

But am always told Boris Johnson the hardest line in the room on Brexit. And Brexit hardball has - in the past - united his (post-December) Parliamentary party

6/ Now adjacent to all of that....

Boris Johnson's main answer to forging a new form of special relationship with new President is to try and bond over climate change / COP26. You can see preparatory domestic announcements...
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
thetimes.co.uk/article/new-pe…

7/ So here's where it might get messy. By accident or design, could Brussels could get in the way of Britain's attempt to forge a relationship over green issues.

Here's how:

8/ According to Brussels source, the brexit stumbling blocks remaining be state aid, maintaining standards in climate change, employment relations and environment protection. Not fish.

Interesting that climate change explicitly in this list.

9/ As a happy coincidence highlighting differences in environment standards might allow Brussels to throw a spanner in the works of Boris Johnson's pitch to Biden on climate change.

EU types asking whether US can trust BJ on climate if he wont agree to EU standards.

10/ (NB climate change as a brexit stumbling block isn't new - it's just a section of the wider level playing field dispute - though it's the first time I've seen it pulled out and referenced specifically.

Interesting timing.)

11/ In conclusion, don't assume that because President Elect Biden would could kick up if there's no deal, that there *will* be a deal. This week is key.

But also watch if Brussels start to question our climate change credentials just as BJ seeks to work together with US on COP

TL:DR - Brexit's back

Oh I ought to add. I checked in with one key member state. They were surprised climate change was on the list of problems. They hadn’t clocked it as an issue to be separated out...

From @alexwickham Playbook