It's just a matter of time.
Here's what's left to be counted, as we head into the possible/likely day of decision for Biden
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/ups…
In Pennsylvania, Biden is on track to amass a lead of around 80k votes before provisional ballots get counted. I'd think that will be enough for the networks to make a projection.
We don't know the provisionals, but eye-balling the results I'm guessing there's a lot in Philly.
There's just not much left in Georgia at this point, where we have a scattering of absentee votes and then the provisional/cured/abs/military extraneous stuff. It's really close. There won't be a call. But right now I just don't see the votes for Trump without errors or surprises
In Arizona, Trump continues to gain at a pace that's *just* shy of what he needs to take the state, but close enough that you can't rule out the possibility that he squeaks it out. We'll have a better idea with the next wave of Maricopa votes
And in Nevada, I think we can expect a call with the next wave of ballots. If that happens, we could be in an interesting spot where Fox/AP either call the election based on a bad AZ call. Also possible: they take PA as well to have some cushion.
People aren't scared. The networks really often don't call races this close until the recount thresholds are cleared. You saw it in Michigan earlier this week, for ex, and that was painfully obvious
They did not call MI. They did call WI/PA, but Trump led by more than a .5 point. I'd expect they'll call PA once Biden's lead gets that large

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More from @Nate_Cohn

7 Nov
There was a point on Tuesday night--not sure the time, you can probably find the tweet--when the eastern Ohio counties came in and I think I would have thought very hard about calling Trump the favorite
There was some conflicting info among white northerners at that point: MN/ME/NH were fine for Biden, WI was close, and rural OH/IA were worse than 2016. IDK how I would have sorted it out if forced.
But there was no way to know that this red wasn't bleeding to PA Image
I guess by that point we did have the AZ early vote, which would have kept the non-Rust Belt path alive. But it's not like Biden was an overwhelming favorite in WI at that point either, and I do think this was well before the needle came around on Georgia
Read 11 tweets
7 Nov
Well it's about time: Joe Biden is the president-elect.
He's carried the state of Pennsylvania, and I can report that it is very loud here in dark blue Manhattan
The remaining vote could expand Biden's lead in Pennsylvania to well over 100,000 votes
The winning map: Biden currently has 273 electoral votes, and he leads in states worth 306 Image
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
Trump wins the new Maricopa vote by 15.6 points. Still not good enough for him. Still not going to yield a projection, I don't think.
That's a little better for Trump than it was yesterday. It would put him on track to really tighten things up if it kept up, even if it wouldn't be enough to put him over the top. And Trump doing a little better makes it harder to rule out that he won't do better later
I want to be clear that I really do think that Trump is still competitive in Arizona. No, he's not 'on track'--if you play this out, Trump still falls a hair short. But the results today are awfully close to on track, and there are a lot of ballots left.
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
AM update: What's still left to count, and why hasn't a winner been called?
nytimes.com/2020/11/07/ups…
In Pennsylvania, I can think of two possibilities. One is that the desks are waiting for Biden to clear the .5 point recount threshold. That's a stated AP position.
If so, Biden could be called... at really any point, as his lead is now up to .43
ap.org/en-us/topics/p…
Another possibility is the provisional ballots, which are a little murky so far if you're looking for 1000% certainty. That said, all indications are that they break Democratic: there's too much in Philly and Allegheny, and the early reporting in latter is that they're D+50
Read 6 tweets
6 Nov
I've gotten a few questions about the provisional ballots in Pennsylvania this afternoon. I addressed them here earlier this morning, and I don't have a lot to add.
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/ups…
Today, we did get initial provisional results in some very Republican counties. They were ~ the same as the non-provisional vote. That's not going to cut it for Trump, since a) he needs to win these ballots big to win by this means; b) Philly/dem areas have more provisionals
I don't really know exactly why the networks haven't called it (that's not say they're wrong--I can think of a number of arguments, some better than others), so I don't know what it would take to trigger a call
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
Meanwhile, Trump's lead is under 50k in PA. It sure seems like Philadelphia is due to give us an update at some point this evening...
Meanwhile, Trump's lead in Georgia is now under 2500 votes. It'll be interesting to see whether Georgia beats out Pennsylvania in the race to a Biden lead
Unlike Pennsylvania, Biden won't be called the winner in Georgia if he manages to take a lead. It'll be too close, with provisionals and overseas ballots still left to go and the prospect of recount
Read 4 tweets

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