Thread by @Nate_Cohn

It's just a matter of time.
Here's what's left to be counted, as we head into the possible/likely day of decision for Biden
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/ups…

In Pennsylvania, Biden is on track to amass a lead of around 80k votes before provisional ballots get counted. I'd think that will be enough for the networks to make a projection.
We don't know the provisionals, but eye-balling the results I'm guessing there's a lot in Philly.

There's just not much left in Georgia at this point, where we have a scattering of absentee votes and then the provisional/cured/abs/military extraneous stuff. It's really close. There won't be a call. But right now I just don't see the votes for Trump without errors or surprises

In Arizona, Trump continues to gain at a pace that's *just* shy of what he needs to take the state, but close enough that you can't rule out the possibility that he squeaks it out. We'll have a better idea with the next wave of Maricopa votes

And in Nevada, I think we can expect a call with the next wave of ballots. If that happens, we could be in an interesting spot where Fox/AP either call the election based on a bad AZ call. Also possible: they take PA as well to have some cushion.

People aren't scared. The networks really often don't call races this close until the recount thresholds are cleared. You saw it in Michigan earlier this week, for ex, and that was painfully obvious

https://twitter.com/ColliverCali/status/1324721295347601408?s=20

They did not call MI. They did call WI/PA, but Trump led by more than a .5 point. I'd expect they'll call PA once Biden's lead gets that large

https://twitter.com/mymrbig/status/1324722544604254209?s=20