Trump wins the new Maricopa vote by 15.6 points. Still not good enough for him. Still not going to yield a projection, I don't think.
That's a little better for Trump than it was yesterday. It would put him on track to really tighten things up if it kept up, even if it wouldn't be enough to put him over the top. And Trump doing a little better makes it harder to rule out that he won't do better later
I want to be clear that I really do think that Trump is still competitive in Arizona. No, he's not 'on track'--if you play this out, Trump still falls a hair short. But the results today are awfully close to on track, and there are a lot of ballots left.
Yesterday's ballots really weren't close to being on track for him. If today's results were like that, it'd be a different story. But that's not what we got this AM, and we don't know which way things trend fro here
I do continue to think there's more reason to expect things to trend Biden's way than not, because I'd *guess* the provisionals are better for Biden and that is the longer term trendline. But we don't know that for a fact.
The other big thing that could help Biden: if there's fewer ballots left than the state's website suggests.
Heading into today, it said 92k in Maricopa. They just reported 48k, and now they say there's 24k left... which would have meant 72k left heading into this dump.
Heading into today, it said 92k in Maricopa. They just reported 48k, and now they say there's 24k left... which would have meant 72k left heading into this dump.
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