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Shaun Lawson Profile picture
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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Yesterday, I explained the ridiculous set-up in the Senate: which has 2 seats for each state. There is a mounting chance that, after 2 special elections in Georgia on Jan 5, the Senate will be tied at 50-50.

We're also on track for Biden to win 25 states; Trump to win 25 states.
That's assuming that Pennsylvania and Nevada are confirmed Biden (which they will be for sure); Georgia is (pretty likely but not certain); and Arizona is (likely but not certain).

I'm not sure if any Presidential race ever has finished 25-25 in states. The Senate matches it.
Few things better sum up how incredibly polarised the US is now. But it's a false polarisation: because there's far, far, FAR more people in the 25 Democrat states than the 25 GOP ones.

Remember too that DC, the most liberal place in the whole US, doesn't have any senators.
It should. And Puerto Rico should be granted statehood.

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More from @shaunjlawson

Shaun Lawson Profile picture
7 Nov
I'm laughing at many of the responses to *that* thread. I did say I was a small and bitter man ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Predictably, many of the comments just repeat a bunch of myths. Which I'll run through now.
1. "Biden's only just scraped it!" Wrong.

The only reason they're still counting now is because so so many voted by mail. In normal circumstances - almost everyone voting in-person - we'd have known the result by Wednesday morning.
Biden's electoral college outcome is going to be 306-232. That is NOT 'only just scraping it'. Nor is the highest number of votes for any Presidential candidate in history (the previous record was in 2008); nor is a popular vote margin which will keep rising and hit 5m and above.
Read 17 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
7 Nov
In many ways, I am a small and bitter man. So I hope you can forgive me - everyone's a bit of an arse from time to time - but I'm gonna have a bit of fun.

This thread is about the epic number of political illiterates on this platform who insisted that Biden would lose.
I also want to make something clear before I begin. Everyone makes wrong calls. I have plenty of times. The problem is the constant dogma and ideology which lies behind calling it so wrong, ie.

"I'm a socialist. Biden is a centrist. Ergo, Biden will lose!"
Not only that, but:

"You are crazy / you are a disgrace for supporting Biden / thinking he'll win!"

That level of dogmatic tribalism is a massive problem on social media. But I hope those I highlight in this thread will at least think about it. Reflection is good for everyone.
Read 105 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
6 Nov
At this increasingly optimistic hour, here's a short thread reminding us about what we all face. The appalling threat which democracy everywhere will continue to face long into the future. A threat which will likely become ever more sophisticated; ever more dangerous.
Three anecdotes.

1. I teach many students. They're all smart, kind, decent people. On Tuesday, I asked one of them if she was following the US election. She said:

"Well, I don't know too much... but I've seen a video of Biden with children. He's a bad man".
2. On Wednesday morning, with me having been up almost all night following the results, I asked another student. He said:

"I've heard there's been lots of fraud".
Read 11 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
5 Nov
As we all wait, and wait, and wait, here's an article by @OwenJones84 . Which gets right to the heart of "where do the Democrats go now?" - and the constant, uh, lively debate on and off here between socialists, social democrats, liberals and centrists.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
I like Owen a huge amount. He is an awesome campaigning journalist - and I agree with at least 90% of what he says on most things.

This isn't one of those times - but that doesn't make me blind to the factors leading to his conclusions. Not in any way.
Take a look at this graph. Which shows clearly and precisely what, above all, is destroying America.
Read 69 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: Kathy Boockvar, Pennsylvania secretary of state, has just told CNN that the winner of the state could be announced tonight.

There are still 550,000 ballots left to be processed, but officials are ahead of schedule and most will be counted by this evening, Boockvar said.
The key is Philadelphia, where there’s about 100,000 outstanding ballots and where Joe Biden is winning a whopping 80% of votes.

This means it may not matter that Allegany county, home to Pennsylvania’s second-largest city of Pittsburgh, has suspended counting until tomorrow.
Boockvar also said that Donald Trump’s legal appeal to discount mail-in ballots posted by 3 November, but which arrive before the end of Friday 6 November, would not make a significant difference as there’s only a few thousand.
Read 4 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
5 Nov
Increasingly strong chance that Biden's gonna sweep almost all remaining close states. In order of likelihood (from virtual cert to strong):

- Nevada
- Arizona (ignore Trump's smoke and mirrors)
- Georgia
- Pennsylvania

That'd give him 306 electoral votes. A very different look
Not only that, but the popular vote margin's gonna rise substantially:

1. In Georgia and especially Pennsylvania, where there are tons of Democrat votes still to come

2. In California, which is only at 66% reporting.

It makes the initial ridicule of pollsters look ridiculous.
I'm also watching the Senate races closely. Depending on how much early vote is still outstanding, initial pessimism there may end up proving (somewhat) misplaced.

In January, we might well be looking at two Georgian special elections which, if won by Dems, would make it 50-50.
Read 4 tweets

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