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Shaun Lawson Profile picture
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7 Nov, 106 tweets, 27 min read
In many ways, I am a small and bitter man. So I hope you can forgive me - everyone's a bit of an arse from time to time - but I'm gonna have a bit of fun.

This thread is about the epic number of political illiterates on this platform who insisted that Biden would lose.
I also want to make something clear before I begin. Everyone makes wrong calls. I have plenty of times. The problem is the constant dogma and ideology which lies behind calling it so wrong, ie.

"I'm a socialist. Biden is a centrist. Ergo, Biden will lose!"
Not only that, but:

"You are crazy / you are a disgrace for supporting Biden / thinking he'll win!"

That level of dogmatic tribalism is a massive problem on social media. But I hope those I highlight in this thread will at least think about it. Reflection is good for everyone.
Let's start here. I've always known Biden had the qualities necessary to beat Trump. I was saying so 4 years ago.



My reasoning? The same as this year. That he'd have held on to the rust belt with a broad national appeal no other Democrat could match.
Anyway, let's move things on towards the present. Biden was always the clear favourite to win the Democratic primaries: apart from a MAJOR wobble in January and February.

This is from July last year, for example.
Now, I wasn't blind to his weaknesses at all, and said as much (see tweets in the same thread I'm quoting from here). But I also pointed out:



Was I wrong?
Even my support was, at this stage, only moderate/lukewarm. But at least I could see the woods for the trees.

Unlike, *ahem ahem*

YOU WERE SAYING

To be fair to Suburban Mom, Biden in 2020 is clearly not as impressive a figure as in 2008-2016. And Trump did bring up Hunter at every opportunity. But because Americans trust Biden (they know him) and don't trust Trump (they know him), it didn't work.

In Jan and Feb, I was worried. Bernie was ahead in the early primaries practically by default - because Biden was performing so so badly. Yet nationally? Nationally, Biden was still doing better than Sanders.

See also:

Here's someone who knew exactly what she was talking about. Well played Paola! πŸ‘

Here's someone who, er, didn't. And is the perfect example of what I mentioned at the start. Chances of him learning anything whatsoever? Somewhere between slim and nil... and slim just left town.

*FACEPALM*

Yes. Well played Dawn Butler. πŸ™

This is the kind of ludicrous dogma I'm talking about. "I won't vote for Dawn Butler for Deputy because she, a black woman, wants the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump, the most racist President since the civil war" - or words to that effect.

In late Feb, Biden was thought by more or less everyone to be toast. Until the last debate before South Carolina and Super Tuesday. He won that debate - and I picked up on it.

At which point, cue the intervention of an unadulterated eejit. I did warn him I'd bookmarked it!

O rly?

What Biden did in the debate - before an absolute landslide in South Carolina - had eased my doubts about him. I'd always known that nationally, he'd have a much better chance than Bernie.

Yet check out this guy's disgusting (and very antisemitic) take:

No Karlos. I've called out the Israeli government's treatment of the Palestinians time and time and time again. And Bernie's positions are much closer to my own than Biden's are.

BUT BIDEN HAD A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEATING TRUMP.
It was indeed an indictment of them. Marcus. The indictment read:

"You want to win a general election? How dare you?"

You were saying, Puckhead?

Meanwhile, my take on the morning of Super Tuesday (ie. before those elections) was:

Sorry for picking you out Grr - I like you! And you're not one of the dogmatic, ideological ones I'm criticising! But still...

This guy though? πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

But - massive credit to him - he owned it. I wish more people would do the same.

To be fair to Grr, he was just a bit behind what was happening at this point. He had that in common with massive numbers on here.

Wrong.

Wrong.

Wrong.

He was the correct choice, Jeffrey. And you know next to nothing about US politics. Own it.

False - as I highlighted above in this very thread (the one I'm writing right now, I mean):

The arrogance and ignorance of people like this dude below is completely off the charts.

For the record, Bernie lost Michigan by OVER SIXTEEN POINTS. And lost Wisconsin by OVER THIRTY-ONE POINTS.

Inform YOURSELF, you buffoon.

1. Yes.

2. Yes.

EPIC FAIL. YOU HAVE FAILED, MADAM.

This was written ON THE VERY SAME DAY as Biden increased turnout to an astonishing extent across the country. Before going on to win far more votes than any Presidential candidate in history: part of an election with the biggest turnout in over a century.

You were saying, Steve?

Nope. It's because he knew he'd smash Sanders and would be in big trouble v Biden.

I learned PLENTY from 2019. It's you who didn't.

One down, one to go. Care to reflect at all?

Okaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

Another electoral mastermind speaks.

🀣🀣🀣🀣🀣🀣🀣🀣🀣🀣

No. Why are YOU so completely, unbelievably ignorant?

Yes, he did.

Now: plenty of people are bound to respond: "But Biden only won because of Coronavirus!"

Which, er, was already in the US when the laughably ridiculous assertions above were being made. By people with no awareness whatsoever.

I knew it was important.

One day after he'd massively increased turnout everywhere, our friend Mrs Epic Fail - who clearly doesn't *do* evidence - continued to assert this.

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you.

For the record: absolutely not. I love the man. The reason I backed Biden was because he had a much, much, much better chance of beating Trump. Simple really.

An 'awful candidate' - who's won far and away more votes than anyone else in American history.

As Coronavirus started to really take hold across the US, here's this brilliant piece of invaluable insight.

This sums the whole thing up perfectly. By now, Bernie was being thrashed, annihilated, everywhere. And yet...

1. THIS MUST BE A DNC STITCH-UP (no, it's called democracy: try it sometime)

2. HOW DARE YOU ASSESS THINGS OBJECTIVELY, WITHOUT BLINKERS ON?

It was 150,000 Americans, as it turned out.

Oh, I see. It's not Democratic voters giving Joe Biden a landslide. It's Israel πŸ™„πŸ™„πŸ™„

3 swings, 3 complete misses for poor old Grr.

Notice how the same slogans just kept getting trotted out by people incapable of critical thinking (or any kind of thinking)?

Unlike Reechard here. Reechard gets it.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong again. It's practically impossible to be more wrong. In practice, reason triumphed over nonsense.

'Denial'?!?!

BIDEN WON!

As for 'delusion'? Ever heard of projection at all?

D'oh!

It was actually the complete opposite.

Oh dear.

Never in human history have so many people so sure of themselves been so miserably wrong about something of such consequence.

My view at the same time? See the thread below.

Fail.

Cataclysmically wrong on pretty much everything.

I did. Many many many times. And I was right.

Yes. Pretty much any that aren't based on your biases.

Imagine having 'dementia', yet somehow being as strong and solid as a rock for the last 8 months amid the highest pressure political contest on planet Earth?

This is what's known as living in your own alternative reality.

That'd be the very same Trump who's never produced any kind of healthcare plan in 4 years. Because he doesn't have one.

I think Rob's brilliant much of the time. But again, his biases were showing here, horribly.

I wouldn't.

Indeed it's not. He won by appealing across the country - which is exactly what Starmer wants to do too.

Au contraire, Blackadder.

Ibid.

Notice we're well into April now. Countries across the world are in lockdown; US response has been a disaster; the economy is collapsing. Yet still the same blinkers, the same total inability to just view things as they always were.

Unlike Laura here.

To repeat: at this point, he'd already transformed turnout in the primaries, had thrashed Sanders everywhere (including across the rust belt), and he went on to lead historic turnout at the general election.

Nope.

Hey - this wasn't a bad prediction at all! I was out with a couple of key states, but still...

Apart from, y'know, 75 million Americans. And counting.

I like Craig. He's generally not guilty of viewing things through that biased a lens, so I feel bad for mentioning him here. But I can't help being a bit of a dick at times...

Because he had a great chance of winning? Just a thought Β―\_(ツ)_/Β―

πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘

This is Cathy. Be more like Cathy, everyone.

Here's a thread from a month ago explaining in detail why I was, and had pretty much always been, confident Biden would win.

Correct, Paola. Hence his extraordinary numbers among older black voters.

100% agree with this. I think Jim Clyburn saved the United States.

Some seriously far out shit, this.

"No different to Trump".

Is anyone on this entire website more thunderingly clueless about absolutely everything than Damian?

Precisely.

Notice the constant pattern emerging in this thread - of how so many women have been right, and so many men completely wrong?

I don't think it's a coincidence.

It worked.

This was from Wednesday morning when so many were panicking. UnionBrews isn't someone who views things through biases though - he's just a pessimist, that's all! A sensible approach to life, all things considered: you can only be surprised πŸ™‚

I, meanwhile, was always under control.

(Well, just about...)

Yep.

Oh Rob. Rob, Rob Rob Rob...

LOOK AT THIS COMPLETE CLOWN EVERYONE

See this? This was superb. Adam was commenting from knowledge, not ignorance. That's the difference.

Indeed it has Brews. Indeed it has. πŸ‘

As we reach the end of this labour of - I dunno, mischief? - I want to make a couple of final points.

As I said above, everyone gets things wrong. All the time. In this thread, you can easily observe people doing so for good reasons... and people doing so for bad reasons.
What are those bad reasons? Viewing everything - actually predicting election results - based on your own enormous biases.

Those most guilty of that just happened to be those who are most loudly left wing; those who supported Sanders most strongly. Surprise surprise.
Memo to these people: 150 million voters do not behave according to your personal politics.

We were told only Bernie could increase turnout. Wrong. Biden did, massively.

We were told a moderate Democrat wouldn't inspire anyone. Wrong, completely wrong.
We were told that working class white men couldn't possibly choose a moderate Democrat. Despite said moderate Democrat thrashing a democratic socialist throughout the key states in this race: all of which, he's flipped back from Trump.
But here's the thing. Already, a brand new narrative is being constructed!

- He didn't win by ENOUGH!

- He only won because of the virus!

Exactly the same people who always have a ready-made excuse whenever socialists lose, heavily.
You cannot win elections without persuading the unpersuaded.

You cannot win elections without bringing people in the middle over to your side.

You do not win elections in the capitalist West by pledging a revolution.
The Democratic Party and Democrat voters always understood this. That's why they chose Biden by such a huge margin - and with respect, they know far, far, far more about their country and their electoral system than any of the galaxy brains I've highlighted above.
Will any of the above have any effect? Will it make people think, reflect, reassess? In a few cases, hopefully yes. In most, no.

See you all again at the next UK general election. When, y'know, Starmer is CERTAIN to lose because HE'S DESTROYED LABOUR. He has NO CHANCE.

πŸ™ƒπŸ™ƒπŸ™ƒ
As I'm always happy to respond to feedback πŸ˜€, I'll leave the follow-up thread here.

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More from @shaunjlawson

Shaun Lawson Profile picture
7 Nov
I'm laughing at many of the responses to *that* thread. I did say I was a small and bitter man Β―\_(ツ)_/Β―

Predictably, many of the comments just repeat a bunch of myths. Which I'll run through now.
1. "Biden's only just scraped it!" Wrong.

The only reason they're still counting now is because so so many voted by mail. In normal circumstances - almost everyone voting in-person - we'd have known the result by Wednesday morning.
Biden's electoral college outcome is going to be 306-232. That is NOT 'only just scraping it'. Nor is the highest number of votes for any Presidential candidate in history (the previous record was in 2008); nor is a popular vote margin which will keep rising and hit 5m and above.
Read 17 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
6 Nov
Yesterday, I explained the ridiculous set-up in the Senate: which has 2 seats for each state. There is a mounting chance that, after 2 special elections in Georgia on Jan 5, the Senate will be tied at 50-50.

We're also on track for Biden to win 25 states; Trump to win 25 states.
That's assuming that Pennsylvania and Nevada are confirmed Biden (which they will be for sure); Georgia is (pretty likely but not certain); and Arizona is (likely but not certain).

I'm not sure if any Presidential race ever has finished 25-25 in states. The Senate matches it.
Few things better sum up how incredibly polarised the US is now. But it's a false polarisation: because there's far, far, FAR more people in the 25 Democrat states than the 25 GOP ones.

Remember too that DC, the most liberal place in the whole US, doesn't have any senators.
Read 4 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
6 Nov
At this increasingly optimistic hour, here's a short thread reminding us about what we all face. The appalling threat which democracy everywhere will continue to face long into the future. A threat which will likely become ever more sophisticated; ever more dangerous.
Three anecdotes.

1. I teach many students. They're all smart, kind, decent people. On Tuesday, I asked one of them if she was following the US election. She said:

"Well, I don't know too much... but I've seen a video of Biden with children. He's a bad man".
2. On Wednesday morning, with me having been up almost all night following the results, I asked another student. He said:

"I've heard there's been lots of fraud".
Read 11 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
5 Nov
As we all wait, and wait, and wait, here's an article by @OwenJones84 . Which gets right to the heart of "where do the Democrats go now?" - and the constant, uh, lively debate on and off here between socialists, social democrats, liberals and centrists.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
I like Owen a huge amount. He is an awesome campaigning journalist - and I agree with at least 90% of what he says on most things.

This isn't one of those times - but that doesn't make me blind to the factors leading to his conclusions. Not in any way.
Take a look at this graph. Which shows clearly and precisely what, above all, is destroying America.
Read 69 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: Kathy Boockvar, Pennsylvania secretary of state, has just told CNN that the winner of the state could be announced tonight.

There are still 550,000 ballots left to be processed, but officials are ahead of schedule and most will be counted by this evening, Boockvar said.
The key is Philadelphia, where there’s about 100,000 outstanding ballots and where Joe Biden is winning a whopping 80% of votes.

This means it may not matter that Allegany county, home to Pennsylvania’s second-largest city of Pittsburgh, has suspended counting until tomorrow.
Boockvar also said that Donald Trump’s legal appeal to discount mail-in ballots posted by 3 November, but which arrive before the end of Friday 6 November, would not make a significant difference as there’s only a few thousand.
Read 4 tweets
Shaun Lawson Profile picture
5 Nov
Increasingly strong chance that Biden's gonna sweep almost all remaining close states. In order of likelihood (from virtual cert to strong):

- Nevada
- Arizona (ignore Trump's smoke and mirrors)
- Georgia
- Pennsylvania

That'd give him 306 electoral votes. A very different look
Not only that, but the popular vote margin's gonna rise substantially:

1. In Georgia and especially Pennsylvania, where there are tons of Democrat votes still to come

2. In California, which is only at 66% reporting.

It makes the initial ridicule of pollsters look ridiculous.
I'm also watching the Senate races closely. Depending on how much early vote is still outstanding, initial pessimism there may end up proving (somewhat) misplaced.

In January, we might well be looking at two Georgian special elections which, if won by Dems, would make it 50-50.
Read 4 tweets

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