Maricopa County just reported 69K ballots (that's roughly what it reports in every batch).
They went for Trump by 10%.
Smaller than the batches counted on Thursday (though a bit larger than this morning), & still smaller than estimates of what he'd need.
They went for Trump by 10%.
Smaller than the batches counted on Thursday (though a bit larger than this morning), & still smaller than estimates of what he'd need.
Crudest possible math. @Garrett_Archer estimated there were 244K ballots left in AZ before this. Let's use that.
Before this batch, Trump needed to win what was left in all of Arizona by 15.1%.
He only won this (very large) batch by 10%. So now needs what's left by 17.2%.
Before this batch, Trump needed to win what was left in all of Arizona by 15.1%.
He only won this (very large) batch by 10%. So now needs what's left by 17.2%.
One caveat I'd have: The SoS's assessments of what's left (which is what @Garrett_Archer is using) have grown a few times. That's lowered (a bit) the threshold of what Trump needs. There'd need to be many more ballots, or Trump needs to do much better, or a mix of the two.
Aha, this roughly what I used in my estimate (in fact, it's 1K lower), so no new inflation (for now) of the # of outstanding ballots.
This means Trump needs to win what's left in Arizona by 17.3%. (That's up from 15.1% 20 minutes ago.)
This means Trump needs to win what's left in Arizona by 17.3%. (That's up from 15.1% 20 minutes ago.)
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1324898560081539072
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
