Since I know that what everyone *really* wants right now is the take of financial analysts, I’m going to share some of the first notes to hit my inbox. First up is Goldman Sachs, which thinks Biden will still get a $1tn stimulus package despite GOP-controlled Senate.
Here’s Oxford Economics, which warns that Biden is inheriting a “frail” economy.
SEB also thinks a $1tn stimulus package is coming, but expects the biggest change to be on the international arena.
Regarding the point that the US economy still needs a fiscal jolt, here is a good chart from Apollo’s Torsten Sløk, showing how the jobs recovering is still incomplete and slowing.
Here is Invesco’s “Five forces that could propel markets during a Biden presidency”. blog.invesco.us.com/five-forces-th…

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More from @RobinWigg

10 Sep
We recently revealed Masayoshi Son's SoftBank as the "Nasdaq Whale" that created a splash in the US options market, and contributed to the summer stock market melt-up. But there are millions of "Mini Masas" that in aggregate likely dwarf its impact. ft.com/content/b330e0…
As the previous chart shows (a massive thanks to @jasongoepfert for the data), the volume of call premiums being traded in small retail-sized lots (10 contracts or less) has gone absolutely PARABOLIC lately.
@jasongoepfert Here is the share of small US equity options lots as a % of the whole market. Absolutely wild.
Read 5 tweets
1 Sep
High-growth stock valuations elevated, but far from the extremes seen during the dotcom bubble, Bernstein notes.
Very profitable companies tend to stay very profitable for longer than they did in the past as well.
Buybacks has been the biggest prop to equity demand over the past decade, but ex-tech buybacks are now outpaced by equity issuance.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
On June 12, Alex Kearns, a young student, took his own life, after believing that he had lost over $700,000 trading options on Robinhood. I’m glad that the FT has made our big piece on it free to read, but here is a long thread on my thoughts. ft.com/content/45d0a0…
But first of all, mental health is a serious issue that still wrongly carries some kind of stigma. Please, if you ever feel down and need help, don’t button it up, reach out to someone! Hell, even DM me. It helps to talk. Here is more info:
Ok, like many others, I’ve laughed at the memes – Daddy Powell! BTFD! and the bombast from the likes of Portnoy. Hard not to be amused at someone telling Warren Buffett to GTFO because “I’m the captain now”.
Read 24 tweets
19 Jun
Going to tweet some of the eye-catching charts in the latest note from Goldman Sachs's chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer, where he argues that the coming era will be "fat and flat".
Passive funds have enjoyed enormous tailwinds lately, and now account for over half of all equity AUM in the US.
Falling bond yields have led to valuation expansion (you're willing to pay more for stocks when rates are low), which has been a huge contributor to equity returns since the GFC.
Read 9 tweets
28 Apr
This is my favourite story of 2020. The central bank of Nintendo's Animal Crossing game is taking decisive action to prevent hoarding, and has slashed interest rates to near zero. Analysts say it is spurring a hunt for riskier assets like tarantulas. ft.com/content/68f96d…
Like many central bankers, Tom Nook elicits strong feelings. gametruth.com/editorials/tom…
FT readers gunna FT.
Read 6 tweets
2 Apr
Some good charts from Goldman Sachs's Peter Oppenheimer on just how unusually savage this bear market has been. A thread:
First of all, the size of the decline is (thus far) pretty much average for "event-driven" bear markets.
But in terms of swiftness, it is record-shattering, even surpassing the Great Crash of 1929.
Read 9 tweets

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