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David Henig Profile picture
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8 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Those dull realities - a Biden administration will neither think the UK is the number one special partner or Boris Johnson a demon rendering the whole relationship toxic.
Still this, the decision which cannot be avoided. Has been coming for months. Does Johnson break with the Brexit ultras this week to go for the deal? And how does he play this? Not about the EU negotiation, but the internal UK one. Big moment.
The decision the PM faces this week is surprisingly little written about. Almost as if people believe the negotiation with the EU might actually change the fundamentals. It won't. Accept the EU level playing field / Northern Ireland protocol. Or damage EU and US relations.
Think we're going to need an upgrade in Foreign Secretary to have any chance of being taken seriously in DC.
As we've variously been saying, a UK trade deal will not be a US government priority. But perhaps in a couple of years. As long as we're prepared to accept the chicken (read the whole thread).

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
10 Nov
I think the government genuinely does not realise what a big mess it has already created with the Internal Market Bill, and how continuing is going to make it a lot worse. They actually believe the US and EU are wrong. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
What ultimately happens with the Internal Market Bill is that either the government has to back down, in which case demonstrating weakness and poor judgement, or not, in which case no EU or US trade deal, and poor relations with both for the next four years.
As of today the UK government is on a crash course with reality, taking us all with it. Antagonism with all three trade superpowers, and no deals, lies before us unless the government now obviously u-turns. A government and country trapped by abysmal judgement and tactics.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Nov
In the event of a UK-EU deal it is possible both sides could put in place some kind of trusted scheme to reduce the problems of inspections of foodstuffs. Without one I see no possibility. This is the problem of unrealistic timescales (and who imposed those?).
The thread version of the story. Given that a representative of a major UK food manufacturer told me 9 months ago they would probably not supply Northern Ireland because of this issue, the UK government's failure to prepare is basic negligence.
As I have repeatedly said, the UK faces the largest one-day change in trading conditions in history on January 1st, deal or no-deal. @pmdfoster and @Joe_Mayes have written about the practical challenges endlessly. The government refused to extend that date. It has no excuses.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Nov
In which we move from a special relationship to "the UK and the US have much more in common than divides us". Can you imagine another PM saying this? All apparently related to a PM unable to make difficult decisions about the country's future.

theguardian.com/p/fdv8j/stw Image
Worth emphasising that given the UK starts from a tough place with President Biden, plenty of suspicion combined with shrugging as to whether we are worth engaging with, we need to try extra hard, not reinforce existing views.
If I'm in the Biden team right now I'm thinking Germany seems to be making an effort to build bridges, I know Ireland is going to be the special relationship for this President, and France is, well, France. What do I think about the UK? Sceptical at best.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Nov
Very important - the UK government has to say this because yesterday the PM gave exactly the opposte message and will have left the EU feeling that he will now cave to anything they suggest. In any case the deal is the deal, and he has to decide yes or no.
Meanwhile I think UK farmers will be very interested to learn that with regard to a potential US trade deal "the core elements are agreed" h/t playbook. US food standards being THE core element for the US yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Hmmm... Image
No getting away from the UK's decisions now. Never has it been more obvious that negotiations with the EU and US and really in both cases internal UK negotiations - between the government and their backbenchers, and government and a very large UK food standards lobby.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
8 Nov
Hate to say I told you so, but, well... Image
Trade in general won't be a priority for Biden, and the UK in particular even less. And even if it was we still have the food problems as before.

But this US administration will mostly, as regards the UK, want to prod us towards a stable EU relationship.
Although... always worth bearing in mind we don't know who exactly will hold which positions. But I don't see anyone on the Democrat side making the UK a priority.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
8 Nov
We agree on climate change so everything will be fine in UK-US relations under Biden is as delusional as we agree on Brexit so we'll get a great UK-US trade deal under Trump.

Perception the UK is inward focussed and untrustworthy is what needs to be tackled.
In all of the articles published in the last 48 hours about UK-US relations has anyone actually defined what we want the relationship to look like and why? The shallow thinking is easily visible from the US. Urgent need for a change of gear.
Ha! The broad outline was clear six months ago. Wonder what could have changed recently to change the narrative?

And no, you don't look like a strong leader when suddenly accepting realities.
Read 6 tweets

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