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Jon Ralston Profile picture
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8 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Here's our latest story on the election in Nevada as Biden goes over 50 percent. He's going to win the state by more than Hillary did.

Dem leads in congressional races continue to widen and legislative contests in Southern Nevada are in doubt.

Quick work by Team @TheNVIndy.
@TheNVIndy Remember I told you on the early voting blog that Biden needed to win Clark by 80K and Trump needed to offset that in rurals.

Currently:
Clark - Biden+86K
Rurals - Trump+65K
Washoe - Biden+11K

Rural turnout/margins did not get there for Trump.

Clark firewall held for Dems.
@TheNVIndy So what we have in NV is what I expected to happen: Dems had built up 90K margin Clark in early/mail. Biden is going to win Clark by close to that number or more. Washoe is going slightly to Biden as I thought and Trump crushing it in rurals (bigger than '16 but not big enough).
@TheNVIndy That's why I find these less-than-wispy fraud allegations so humorous. There is nothing odd about these results in NV. Pattern very familiar since '08..
Law firm of Trump, Laxalt, McDonald, Grenell and Schlapp is grasping at straws and making fools of themselves.
Again. Still.

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More from @RalstonReports

Jon Ralston Profile picture
6 Nov
NEWS: New NV numbers from Clark -- small batch, he's now up by 22.5K. Gain of about 2K.

It's still...over.
Only a few thousand ballots added, but Biden continues to win by large margin every Clark update. Third straight update that he has won by 2 to 1 or close to it:

Biden: +5,454
Trump: 2,934

Overall:

Biden: 632,558
Trump: 609,901

Lead is 22,657, or 1.6 percent
Let me show you how impossible this is for Trump here:

First, three reports of Clark ballots so far -- pattern of large proportional Biden gains. He has now almost tripled his election night lead of 7,500.

So there's that.

But bear with me...
Read 10 tweets
Jon Ralston Profile picture
6 Nov
Apropos of nothing, may I remind everyone that in the history of this country, there has never been a Nevadan in a presidential Cabinet.

This is a fact. Really.

(Please don't pollute my feed with Secretary of Slow-Ballot-Counting jokes.)
I think @DTaylorUH
would make a helluva labor secretary and the Culinary did help Biden win Nevada. One of labor movement's most accomplished figures.
It would somehow be fitting if the end of @SenatorReid's career was as energy secretary. The man who stopped the DOE from putting nuclear waste at Yucca as head of DOE?
Read 6 tweets
Jon Ralston Profile picture
5 Nov
All right, everyone, there has been some confusion over how many ballots are left in NV -- some miscommunication, so let me clarify with latest via election officials.
In Clark:
The 51K Clark ballots that will be reported tomorrow are mail already through verification process.
1/
There are an additional 63,000 mail ballots in Clark that have been returned but have not gone though the process. A mail percentage will end up being rejected if pattern holds.
Then there are about 60,000 so-called provisionals in Clark.
2/
Those are same-day registrants that need to be verified after mail counted. And then some ballots that will arrive in the next few days mailed Monday or Tuesday.
So may be 175K in Clark, give or take, depending n rejections and new mail.
A few thousand in rest of state.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Jon Ralston Profile picture
5 Nov
NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.
Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.
Washoe If no more Clark numbers post today, though, this lead will shrink when rurals post. But there tens of thousands of mail ballots to come from Clark....eventually.
Read 13 tweets
Jon Ralston Profile picture
5 Nov
"The Harry Reid machine recklessly threw ballots into the mail."

Really?

Ric Grenell, Nevadan, showing just how political this is.

"They continue to count illegal votes. It is giving legal people the sense that the system is corrupt."

Legal people.
Reporters yelling for Grenell to say who he is.

His response: "Listen, you are here to take in information."

Why wouldn't he just say his name?
Now another Nevadan, Matt Schlapp, is criticizing the process, saying they won't let them check ballots.

Understand: What they are saying is they don't trust the professionals to run the election. They want partisans (i.e. them) to run the election not nonpartisans.
Read 5 tweets
Jon Ralston Profile picture
5 Nov
T-minus two hours until new numbers supposed to be released in Nevada, where Joe Biden has a 7,500-vote lead.

Would you like a thread on what to expect at 9 AM on the best coast?

I thought you might.

Let me walk you through it.

1/
Just under 1.2 million votes have been reported. Joe Biden has about a 7,500-vote lead. I would estimate that there are at least 150,000 more votes to be counted. Almost half of those may be people who registered the same day they voted and were given provisional ballots.
2/
The provisionals will be counted last -- this is for security reasons to make sure none of these people already voted. Overwhelming majority of remaining mail ballots are in Clark County, the Dem stronghold where they have won mail ballots by huge, more than 2-to-1 margins.
3/
Read 6 tweets

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