1/ Notes from @anuhariharan episode at @InvestLikeBest

This one is packed with quality qualitative insights, most of which are also backed by numbers. The whole conversation makes me optimistic about the future.

Here are my notes.
2/ Good point about looking at tech businesses in terms of functions, and not in terms of industries; makes you think a good tech analyst probably has more transferable skillset than other sector analysts.
3/ The pitch for DoorDash which is expected to IPO before the end of the year.

Interesting how most investors seriously overestimate winner-take-all (or most) possibility in a market when most markets have usually room for 3/4 players, especially since end markets are so large.
4/ In two-sided marketplaces, you may need to subsidize suppliers and buyers at different stage of the business. At scale, the growth strategy can look very different than how you grew initially.
5/ Three key diligence elements in venture investing: team, market opportunity, and performance to date. She went on to a lot more detail into these points.
6/ Anu is bullish on India, Indonesia, and LATAM. The LATAM bit totally blew me away (mostly because I don't know much about the region).

Personally, there are only two countries I'm almost always in the perma-bull territory: US, and India.
7/ So, what's the catch in LATAM? Complex regulatory environment.

But given the wallet size of LATAM consumer and yet cheap cost labor, the bull case does seem quite impressive despite those challenges.
8/ Mental model for "hard" tech investments:

Science risk
Engineering risk
Market risk
Funding risk
9/ "...when I work with my team, I always tell them, "Look, don't spend 30%, 60% of your time writing the bear case. Spend 70% of your time telling me what's your 20% upside probability case, because that's what most investors are not going to get."
10/ When Bezos says "it's Day 1", it's not completely rhetorical.

Oh btw, Amazon launched "Prime for Business" in 2017. We don't hear much about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's the new S-curve for $AMZN in this decade.
11/ What are some other exciting areas?

Fintech, and Edtech.
12/ Pretty special response to Patrick's usual closing question.

After coming from Bangladesh, I was most surprised by so many Americans' willingness to help me. I tell my friends whatever I have done after coming to the US is because of the generosity of complete strangers.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

6 Nov
1/ Thread: $UBER 3Q’2020 Earnings Update

If you have been following me for a while, you know I haven’t been bullish on $UBER.

Mr. Market has so far disagreed with me. It’s up 20% in the last two months.

Let’s see how this quarter went.
2/ Rides was down 50% YoY. Take rates down ~290 bps QoQ. Adj EBITDA is coming back strongly from last quarter.
3/ Is Mobility segment improving in October? Not much.

In October, Mobility was ~$28 Bn run-rate bookings. For context, in 2019, it was $49.7 Bn.
Read 14 tweets
2 Nov
1/ Notes from @Rich_Barton and @altcap episode at @InvestLikeBest

This was a wide range of conversation touching on many different topics. Let's start.
2/ First, a pitch for SPAC
3/ Loved this mental model of BHAG: Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal.
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Thread: $GOOG 3Q'20 Earnings Update

$GOOG has been a laggard among the Big Tech for quite some time. But not yesterday!

Among the Big Tech, the stock had the best reaction (+6.5%) to earnings in after-hours.
2/ $GOOG will break out Cloud as a separate segment from Q4, and they will also report ’18, ’19, and ’20 annual number along with profitability next quarter.

Usually a good sign when company wants to provide more disclosure; generally an indicator of driving a better narrative.
3/ In the last quarter,

Total Revenue +14%

Search +6%; YouTube ads +32%; Network ad revenue +9%

GCP +45%

Other revenues +35% driven by YouTube non-ad revenues and Play

Operating Margin ~24% Image
Read 9 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Thread: $FB 3Q'20 update

2.5 Billion people use one of the $FB apps everyday
200 Million businesses use free FB tools
10 Million advertisers

Every time I read these data, the scale still astounds me.
2/

DAU/MAU both +12% YoY
Revenue +22% YoY
APAC and Europe +30% and 25% respectively
North America +20%
RoW +12%
# of impressions +35%, avg price/ad declined 9%
3/ Operating Margin ~37%. FCF $5.9 Bn (FCF Margin ~28%)

Outlook: NA market likely to experience decline in DAU/MAU

Q4 YoY revenue growth likely to be higher than Q3 YoY growth

Some headwinds remain.

No slowdown in sight for $FB’s capex.
Read 13 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Thread: $AMZN 3Q'20 Update

Another quarter of mind-boggling numbers, but since it’s AMZN, that’s expected.

Let’s dive in.
2/ Few things stand out.

Most people understandably rave about AWS, especially given its high margin. But I was always amazed by AMZN’s 3P numbers.

Although we cannot “see” it, it’s highly profitable too (not as much as AWS though).
3/ International segment was again profitable for two consecutive quarters.

Strong volume in Europe and Japan.

AMZN is still in pretty early days in international markets. Launched AMZN Sweden yesterday. Also, launched Prime in Turkey.
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
1/ Thread: $ETSY 3Q’2020 update

A month ago, I published a deep dive on $ETSY.

At that time, I hoped ETSY will make a complete mockery of my reverse DCF, and guess what, they are doing exactly that!

mbi-deepdives.com/etsy-a-handmad…
2/ Assuming mid-point of their GMS guidance for Q4, its GMS this year will be ~3% higher than my 2021 GMS estimates. This year’s FCF will be close to my 2023 estimates.

LOL.

Here’s snapshot of this quarter+ YTD numbers.
3/ Lots of interesting data points of buyers.

75% of current quarter’s GMS was from pre-covid buyer cohorts.

Non-mask GMS is +93%, but bit of a downer is people whose first buy was a mask are primarily buying only masks.

Mask is ~11% of total GMS and decelerating fast.
Read 12 tweets

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