This one is packed with quality qualitative insights, most of which are also backed by numbers. The whole conversation makes me optimistic about the future.
Here are my notes.
2/ Good point about looking at tech businesses in terms of functions, and not in terms of industries; makes you think a good tech analyst probably has more transferable skillset than other sector analysts.
3/ The pitch for DoorDash which is expected to IPO before the end of the year.
Interesting how most investors seriously overestimate winner-take-all (or most) possibility in a market when most markets have usually room for 3/4 players, especially since end markets are so large.
4/ In two-sided marketplaces, you may need to subsidize suppliers and buyers at different stage of the business. At scale, the growth strategy can look very different than how you grew initially.
5/ Three key diligence elements in venture investing: team, market opportunity, and performance to date. She went on to a lot more detail into these points.
6/ Anu is bullish on India, Indonesia, and LATAM. The LATAM bit totally blew me away (mostly because I don't know much about the region).
Personally, there are only two countries I'm almost always in the perma-bull territory: US, and India.
7/ So, what's the catch in LATAM? Complex regulatory environment.
But given the wallet size of LATAM consumer and yet cheap cost labor, the bull case does seem quite impressive despite those challenges.
9/ "...when I work with my team, I always tell them, "Look, don't spend 30%, 60% of your time writing the bear case. Spend 70% of your time telling me what's your 20% upside probability case, because that's what most investors are not going to get."
10/ When Bezos says "it's Day 1", it's not completely rhetorical.
Oh btw, Amazon launched "Prime for Business" in 2017. We don't hear much about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's the new S-curve for $AMZN in this decade.
11/ What are some other exciting areas?
Fintech, and Edtech.
12/ Pretty special response to Patrick's usual closing question.
After coming from Bangladesh, I was most surprised by so many Americans' willingness to help me. I tell my friends whatever I have done after coming to the US is because of the generosity of complete strangers.
$GOOG has been a laggard among the Big Tech for quite some time. But not yesterday!
Among the Big Tech, the stock had the best reaction (+6.5%) to earnings in after-hours.
2/ $GOOG will break out Cloud as a separate segment from Q4, and they will also report ’18, ’19, and ’20 annual number along with profitability next quarter.
Usually a good sign when company wants to provide more disclosure; generally an indicator of driving a better narrative.
3/ In the last quarter,
Total Revenue +14%
Search +6%; YouTube ads +32%; Network ad revenue +9%
GCP +45%
Other revenues +35% driven by YouTube non-ad revenues and Play
2.5 Billion people use one of the $FB apps everyday
200 Million businesses use free FB tools
10 Million advertisers
Every time I read these data, the scale still astounds me.
2/
DAU/MAU both +12% YoY
Revenue +22% YoY
APAC and Europe +30% and 25% respectively
North America +20%
RoW +12%
# of impressions +35%, avg price/ad declined 9%
2/ Assuming mid-point of their GMS guidance for Q4, its GMS this year will be ~3% higher than my 2021 GMS estimates. This year’s FCF will be close to my 2023 estimates.
LOL.
Here’s snapshot of this quarter+ YTD numbers.
3/ Lots of interesting data points of buyers.
75% of current quarter’s GMS was from pre-covid buyer cohorts.
Non-mask GMS is +93%, but bit of a downer is people whose first buy was a mask are primarily buying only masks.