Thread by @GoyalMalini

1) Is demand perk-up in India ahead of #Diwali2020 for real? In a yr when #COVID19 devoured eco & blighted job mkt, the big Q is - is this real eco recovery or just pent up demand? My two cents on understanding India's demand uptick @EconomicTimes
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/i…

2) Not mere sleight of hand- tide seems to be turning for real. In Oct - purchasing managers’ index 4 mfg grew fastest in 13 yrs; services sector expanded fr 1st time since Covid hit; GST collection up to Rs 1.05 trln - 1st time in 8 months; UPI transaction at record 2bn-mark.

3) Home sales, power generation & rail freight signal green shoots of demand revival. Car sales r doing well. Online sales hav been robust. 1st week of festive sales (15th-21st Oct) saw 55% y-o-y growth at $4.1 bn across platforms agst $2.7 bn last yr - Redseer.

4) Many experts are befuddled. “We are shocked. Consumers sitting on the fence have taken the plunge. We never expected recovery (especially) in urban India so soon. It is very difficult to say what is triggering this,” says @HetalGandhi3 , director (research), #CRISIL Ltd.

5) The Govt & @nsitharaman however would want to believe that the economic revival has begun. Is that really true? What's going on in reality?

6) Based on interviews with experts across sectors, here's what my views are. Partly, demand uptick is for real as festive season & eco opening up has its impact. But partly it is to do with 9 imp structural shifts in consumption landscape this festive season.

7) DIGITISATION WAVE: Consumers R opting for online transactions in a push for contactless shopping
ONLINE BUZZ: Players in digital ecosystem like etailers & fintech firms log record sales at the cost of offline retailers which r hurting

8) ORGANISED SECTOR BIAS: Unorganised cos feel the heat as shoppers prefer trusted brands amid pandemic fear. So estbd brands show gud growth.
AUTOMATION THRUST: Sales of dishwashers, vacuum cleaners etc rise as Indians seek substitute for domestic help

9) WFH EFFECT: With virtual office & classrooms, products like mobiles, laptops & tablets r no longer discretionary spends.
THRUST ON WELL BEING: Shopping basket is being recast as health & comfort products like loungewear, health drinks, yoga mats rise

10) NON METRO DRIVE GROWTH: With good harvest & less affected by pandemic, demand frm non-metros outpace metros. This festival, across board rural and non-metro consumers are driving demand. “60% of demand from tier-3 cities & beyond,” says #Flipkart @narenravula

11) DOWNTRADING: With tight wallets, consumers are downtrading. But choices they make are complex. Sales of hatchbacks & used cars surged - so while they are lowering the segment, aspirational car buyers are going for fully-loaded top-end variants.

12) CREDIT ACCESS: Brands, fintech firms and banks are offering products like zero-cost EMIs to tempt buyers with instant loans
In real estate, its a convergence of multiple factors-low interest rate, price correction, lower stamp duty & developers offering grt deals #Diwali2020

13) What does future hold? Shashank Srivastava, ED, @Maruti_Corp “We are confident till Diwali. But after that everyone is cautious - a little nervous even. The eco has to do well for sales to sustain.”

14) “My heart says hope this continues. But my head knows that the demand for cars is directly linked to the GDP growth,” says @bhatm1, head (sales & marketing), Kia Motors India.

My deep dive: @harshilmathur @Asim_Warsi @trramach @ashutosh9315 economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/i…