Thread by @JakeSherman

Playbook

HAPPY MONDAY MORNING. TODAY marks the beginning of the post-TRUMP era in American politics. To the extent that he still has political currency, it dwindles every day as Jan. 20, 2021 draws closer.

Members of his own party are already suggesting his time is up. His staff is looking for new jobs. Markets are looking up, and analysts say it’s because of the expected calm in U.S. politics. In the U.K., govt officials are now saying TRUMP era was not good for them

AROUND THE WORLD and at home, TRUMP has been written off.

NOW WE MUST ALL SHIFT OUR THINKING to what the future looks like. Let’s focus this morning on Senate Republicans, who have the largest number of moving pieces.

>@senatemajldr won reelection by 20 points, &, depending on what happens in Georgia, he could return to lead a Senate Republican Conference that’s larger than most everyone expected in January. His goal in DC is twofold: exercising power, and protecting his GOP colleagues

In the next few months, those 2 goals are one and the same. MCCONNELL’S 1st charge over the next couple of months will be to pump enough money into Ga to protect Sens. KELLY LOEFFLER and DAVID PERDUE, both staunch TRUMP supporters who are trying to win in a state BIDEN just won

HE HAS A TOUGH 2022 SENATE MAP. He will have potentially competitive races with Sens. MARCO RUBIO in Florida, LISA MURKOWSKI in Alaska, ROY BLUNT in Missouri, an open seat in North Carolina, ROB PORTMAN in Ohio, an open seat in Pennsylvania, and RON JOHNSON in Wisconsin.

The LOEFFLER seat comes up again in 2022, as does MARK KELLY’S Arizona seat, which he will undoubtedly try to win. He has potential retirees in 86-year-old RICHARD SHELBY in Alabama, 87-year-old CHUCK GRASSLEY in Iowa and JERRY MORAN in Kansas.

IN THIS LAME DUCK, McConnell has to deal with Covid relief. Does he try to cut a deal with Speaker NANCY PELOSI and foist it upon TRUMP? Probably best, considering all sides are bone tired with Washignton’s Most Eager Man, Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN, now.

Government funding runs out Dec. 11. The debt limit comes up next summer. Is it in everyone’s interest to do a big deal that addresses the debt limit?

MUCH IS BEING MADE OF MCCONNELL’S relationship with BIDEN, and fair enough, because the two do have a legislative history. But their history together is more avoiding disaster than reshaping America

SO WHAT WILL MCCONNELL DO with TRUMP and his unsubstantiated claims that the election has been stolen from him? MCCONNELL and the Senate GOP will give TRUMP room to make his case, but don’t expect that will last long. MCCONNELL is loyal to TRUMP, but he’s a realist.