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Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
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9 Nov, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Post-election Public Opinion Strategies (R) survey: The biggest shy Trump" constituency: college-educated white women.

64% of those who fit the shy Trump voter (4% of the overall electorate) were women, according to the survey.
CHART here: Image
More here: (cc @cjane87) Image

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More from @HotlineJosh

Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
5 Nov
This May column has some data in it that, I think, helps explain the surprising GOP showing downballot.

njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
Trump-Biden voters "a demographically diverse mix: Just one-third make up the popular Trumpian stereotype of working-class white voters, while one-third are white college graduates, and the remainder are nonwhite."
njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
These persuadable voters "identified as economically progressive—supporting higher taxes for the wealthy, a higher minimum wage, and mandated paid family leave—but held markedly conservative positions on a wide array of social and cultural issues."
njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
Read 5 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
5 Jun
NPR-Marist poll:

56% of registered voters believe police behaving appropriately or not aggressively enough

Only 34% believe police too aggressive.

maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/upl…
... asked whether demonstrations are better characterized as protests or riots,

61% said protests
31% said riots
Among Dems: 37% believe police behaved appropriately or not aggressively enough

55% believe police too aggressive

Republicans united, Dems divided on this issue.
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
30 May
Bottoms viral speech is giving space for (white) more-pragmatic Dems in the Biden orbit to speak up...
(ex:

)
But note that Bottoms' perspective was the outlier, at least as of Saturday morning.

Val Demings and Stacey Abrams took the exact opposite tack.

Other prominent Dems were surprisingly muted on the issue of rioting, incl. Obama himself.
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
30 Jan 19
SCOOPLET: Schultz adviser passes along some of the topline #s from their internal polling.

Schultz commissioned several ballot tests over the past few months, found "centrist indy" polling between 25-low 30s // Trump consistently at 29-30 // Warren between 26-30%.

1/2
With Warren on the ballot, found that about 24% of Dems defected to the generic centrist-independent alternative and 20% of Trump Republicans.

Polling found Trump's strong support with Rs around 70%.
2/2
worth noting polling 101: naming a generic"centrist-indy" option will lead to a higher % than if Schultz or any other candidate is named. think of it as something of a high water mark.
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
7 Dec 18
Big difference between criticizing Israel's policies and arguing against Israel's *right to exist*.
Most of Goldberg's argument is that Israel is turning illiberal and right-wing, and it's not anti-Semitic to criticize the Netanyahu government policies. Which isn't anti-Semitism.

What she glosses over is the argument against the Jewish state itself.
Is Rep.-elect Tlaib's comment: "Israel has hypnotized the world, may Allah awaken the people and help them see the evils of Israel" anti-Semitic?
jewishjournal.com/news/nation/23…

Or L Hill's invocation of classical anti-Semitic rhetoric a problem for Goldberg?
jewishjournal.com/news/nation/24…
Read 6 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
17 Jan 18
NEW Against the Grain: "The Five Biggest House Bellwethers"

The five blue-chip races to track in 2018 to see if Democrats will retake the majority.
njour.nl/s/662832?unloc…
1. Illinois Rep. Peter Roskam
"A sr GOP strategist shared internal polling that showed Roskam leading a generic Democrat, but only hanging around the mid-40s in a ballot test."
nationaljournal.com/s/662832?unloc…
2. Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Costello
"Costello’s reelection bid is the most instructive, as his sharp political instincts are being tested by one of the Democrats’ leading recruits, military veteran Chrissy Houlahan."
nationaljournal.com/s/662832?unloc…
Read 6 tweets

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