1 Conflict continues deep inside #Karabakh. It seemed today that Shusha/i had fallen. Picture not fully clear.
Let me focus on the humanitarian situation in Karabakh. Yesterday I spoke to Artak Beglaryan, local human rights ombudsman. He said I could share the information.
2 Beglaryan told me the following: Bombardment continues. Thousands of civilians left Karabakh over the weekend for Armenia mainly women and children. They mainly left on the northern route, as the road through Lachin was too dangerous.
3 He estimates that 100,000 Karabakh Armenians have been displaced by the conflict, mainly to Armenia, but also within Karabakh itself. (That is probably more than two thirds of the local population.)
4 ICRC is only international humanitarian organization now in NK but they may also pull out due to increased fighting. ICRC only working at 20-25 % capacity and are constrained by COVID situation. Halo Trust is also still working in NK but hard for them to work effectively.
5 Many villages in all areas of Karabakh have been overrun by Azerbaijani forces. Most of Hadrut region is now under Azerbaijani military control. Some villages are still battlegrounds and are “burning.” 25-30 villagers are unaccounted for. Reasons to fear they were killed.
6 Confirmed civilian casualties in Karabakh now number 50, with 160 wounded. Civilian casualty figures are no longer so high, fortunately, mainly because most people remaining shelter in basements. But cluster munition remnants lie scattered making the city very dangerous.
7 The hospitals are full of wounded, though many have been evacuated to Armenia. The Republican Hospital was mostly evacuated after the (empty) Maternity Hospital right next door was hit by shelling.
8 Military casualties on the Armenian side are now around 1,300 with several hundred (perhaps 300) missing in action presumed dead. Artak estimates that the casualties on the Azerbaijani military side are much higher.
9 PS Some may dismiss this as biased--personally I find it very believable. Some will say “What about human rights of Azerbaijanis in the conflict?” I'll say: I’m not into Whataboutism. I’ve drawn attention to the suffering of Azerbaijani civilians and will continue to do so.

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More from @Tom_deWaal

8 Nov
6 Yet hard to predict a pause. Fighting continues on multiple fronts. Armenians say they cannot afford to lose Shusha/i. With more civilians removed from Stepanakert, Azerbaijani forces could attack the town even more intensely.
7 Also today, a leaked report of a purported Russian-Turkish peace plan offering a mixed PK operation (Russians on Arm. side, Turks on Az. side), Armenian withdrawal from occupied territories around NK, two corridors across Lachin and Meghri.
middleeasteye.net/news/nagorno-k…
8 Plan reported here has a Turkish spin, was rumoured in mid-October. Nothing here on the big issue, the status of NK itself. But one more sign that the “Basic Principles” framework is crumbling. Instead an "enforced peace" plan by latter-day authoritarian Sultan and Tsar.
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
1 A fateful day in the #Karabakh conflict. Pres. Aliyev announced to his nation that the hilltop city of Shusha, the former main Azerbaijani town in the heart of Karabakh, had fallen. No visual evidence given. Armenians (who call the town Shushi) said fighting continued.
2 Still, Pres. Aliyev's speech sparked scenes of jubilation in Azerbaijan. Shusha has a huge meaning for Azerbaijanis and its loss in May 1992 to the Armenians was felt as a moment of national humiliation.
3 Also, reports today of columns of cars evacuating thousands of Armenian women and children from Karabakh, amidst new bombardment of Stepanakert and fears that the battle for Shusha/i could spread next to this town, down in the valley. Read here eurasianet.org/fears-of-civil…
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
1 For those distracted by news elsewhere: the war in #Karabakh may be moving towards a potentially bloody battle for the city of Shusha (which Armenians call Shushi) deep inside the territory. Azerbaijani forces are reported to be no more than 3-4 km away.
2 A week ago the push was towards Lachin between Armenia and NK. A switch to Shusha may make less sense militarily but has political significance. To see their flag over the high citadel of Shusha appears to be the No. 1 objective of Pres. Aliyev and the Azerbaijani public.
3 Shusha has great meaning in Azerbaijan as the birthplace of poets and composers. It was their town in Karabakh before the war, with an 85 percent Azerbaijani population. See this patriotic video released today.
Read 7 tweets
23 Oct
1 From Putin's comments yesterday on #Karabakh war at Valdai Club: First, worth noting that he talked about several other issues, such as cyber-security and the START treaty, before the war came up. War wasn’t the first item on the agenda. kremlin.ru/events/preside…
2 Second, Putin wanted to come across as absolutely even-handed: “For us Armenia and Azerbaijan are equal partners.” That will obviously infuriate Armenians as the Az. military advance continues. No mention of CSTO commitments, only of shared Christianity.
3 Third, Putin expressed frustration with both sides that they were not flexible enough and never agreed to Russian peace plans. This is a common Putin theme on this conflict: that is up to the parties and not Russia to "take responsibility” for NK conflict.
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
THREAD 1/ Read @cavidaga's story here to understand the huge emotions in Azerbaijan riding on the war and the subject of return —and also the impossible conundrum that is the town of #Shusha.
asiatimes.com/2020/10/karaba…
2 Shusha is Karabakh’s city on the hill, a town of great meaning for Azerbaijanis, the birthplace of composers and poets, seat of khans. It was also home to many Armenians (who call it #Shushi) and to Karabakh’s cathedral, shelled by Az. forces in the recent fighting.
3 In the late Soviet era Shusha's population was 85 percent Azerbaijani, 13 percent Armenian. See my 2003 book cover, for view of both mosque and church. images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41-e-…
Read 10 tweets
18 Oct
1 Reports already of breakdown of last night's #Karabakh truce hours after it was agreed. Again a reminder of why a truce is desperately needed: the huge human cost of conflict. (If you don’t need reminding, please look at my Twitter feed over last three weeks.)
2 Take note of what OHCHR, ICRC, Amnesty, have said: Sustained Azerbaijani bombardment of NK itself and its Armenian population, many civilian casualties, destruction of civilian infrastructure, tens of thousands displaced, use of banned weapons (cluster munitions).
3 Many Armenian strikes on Azerbaijani town of Ganje, Terter, Barda, including places where IDPs from war of 1990s were living and were displaced again. Worst strike with many casualties, mass destruction, occurred yesterday in Ganje.
Read 10 tweets

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