1 Reports already of breakdown of last night's #Karabakh truce hours after it was agreed. Again a reminder of why a truce is desperately needed: the huge human cost of conflict. (If you don’t need reminding, please look at my Twitter feed over last three weeks.)
2 Take note of what OHCHR, ICRC, Amnesty, have said: Sustained Azerbaijani bombardment of NK itself and its Armenian population, many civilian casualties, destruction of civilian infrastructure, tens of thousands displaced, use of banned weapons (cluster munitions).
3 Many Armenian strikes on Azerbaijani town of Ganje, Terter, Barda, including places where IDPs from war of 1990s were living and were displaced again. Worst strike with many casualties, mass destruction, occurred yesterday in Ganje.
4 Plus massive toll on young men in both armies. Per capita the Armenian figure of 800+ dead is already approaching US losses in entire Vietnam war. Azerbaijan is not releasing figures, but they are probably similar.
5 Major reason why truce is needed is for ICRC to ensure release of prisoners. Credible report of atrocities against Armenian captives near Hadrut (See Beilingcat report) raises worries that some captured soldiers may not be coming home.
6 Reasons why a halt in the fighting is more possible, if not today, in coming days: Azerbaijan reported to have captured two regional centers of occupied territories (Fizuli and Jabrail), Pres. Aliev can now tell public that IDPs from those two regions can go home.
7 Az. has also captured high ground in NE and near Hadrut that gives it military advantage. If fighting stops soon, it will try to use this as leverage in talks. Az. now under more pressure from Moscow though details (and whether Russia and Turkey are also bargaining) unclear
8 Winter is coming. But if fighting stops and no political progress made in winter months, spring could see fighting resume. So diplomacy and much-neglected international security aspect needs urgent attention. See pinned Tweet “Prisoners of the Caucasus” for analysis of that.
9 Finally: I write these Twitter posts mainly to draw attention to outside world of grave situation in new #Karabakh conflict. Inevitably they are looked at selectively by people in the conflict zone, many of whom have loved ones caught up in the conflict. I strive to be fair.
10 Twitter is an imperfect instrument for complexity and horror of war. I try to get it right (if I've not recorded all crimes here, I think I've linked to them). For analysis look at my longer pieces. For humanitarian side read especially what UN and ICRC are saying. #NKpeace
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