Our letter in the Lancet today - outlines key recommendations for a sustainable COVID-19 strategy within the UK. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Thanks to @dgurdasani1 for pulling this all together.
In the UK we are currently in the middle of the second wave of the epidemic with cases over 20K per day and deaths averaging over 300 per day.
We are undergoing a second lockdown which is indicative of a failure of public health strategy.
We need to use the time bought by this lockdown wisely in order to prevent ourselves from being in the same situation in a few months time.
Here are our recommendations: 1. Urgently reform the find, test, trace, isolate and support system.
2. We need to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed so it's able to provide care for all patients. Reducing COVID-19 transmission is key. NHS staff need protection and support and the NHS itself requires more funding requires more funding after a decade of underfunding.
3. Education: Controlling transmission in the community and in schools is of vital importance in order to allow schools to remain open. Schools need clear guidance and support on how to make themselves safe - through better ventilation and face coverings.
If blended/remote learning is needed, the government must ensure appropriate remote learning equipment is available to all children, and support families with this.
Universities should move to online modes of delivery wherever possible.
4. We need to provide support packages for those who are most impacted, and for those who are vulnerable, including support for ethnic minorities. We advocate specific support for women and children including child benefits, free school meals, domestic violence support services.
5. Guidance, and safety regulations for workplaces, and support to employers to put these in place. Workplaces will need to meet the required safety standards to remain open - to protect all employees.
6. We need coordination across Europe, and within the UK - on travel restrictions, data sharing, contact tracing app compatibility, developing and procuring rapid tests, procuring medical kits, procuring vaccines, and developing fair allocation protocols for vaccines.
7. We need clear, honest, & consistent public messaging- treating the public as equals, & avoiding blame. The Government should stop treating the 'economy' and controlling COVID-19 as a dichotomy- it is not. The aims of protecting health, economy, and education are all tied. END
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A summary of the slides from today's @IndependentSage briefing.
Slides prepared by the brilliant @chrischirp.
First up testing has stayed relatively flat for the last couple of weeks. Not ramping up like we might hope. Only rising Significantly in NI.
The proportion of tests being returned promptly is dropping in almost all settings (bad) but rising in care homes (good).
Confirmed cases still rising steeply. Cases delayed by Excelgate earlier in the week have been spread evenly over the days when data was missing.
I've noticed a consistent trend in people who like to pretend that all is well on the COVID front plotting graphs in a way which suits their purpose. This is the sort of graph they will show you for hospital admissions. Looks pretty good.
It's understandable they want to demonstrate that cases are low, but if you zoom in, you see a small, but appreciable rise in admissions over the last couple of weeks.
Here's the same trick but for patients curently in hospital. Looks like a rosy picture on this graph...
Antibody tests have the potential to be a game-changer. But many of them aren't all they're cracked up to be. In this article (and this thread) I explore at the impact of false positve and false positives in COVID-19 tests. theconversation.com/coronavirus-su…@ConversationUK@UniofBath 1/10
Cellex have had a test approved by the FDA. If you have antibodies against COVID-19 their test will tell you this correctly 93.8% of the time (this is the test’s “sensitivity”). If you don’t, it will get this correct 95.6% of the time (this is the test’s “specificity”). 2/10
Getting the correct result more than 90% of the time sounds pretty good. But there's a catch. To find out why lets consider testing 10,000 hypothetical individuals. The WHO suggested recently that as few as 3% of the global population may have had COVID-19 and recovered. 3/10