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Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
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10 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
#BiharElectionResults2020 Current Positions:
NDA 120 (-5)
MGB 115 (+5)
LJP 0 (-2)
OTH 8 (+2)

Crucial for NDA to maintain this to form govt or get closer to 122, because among the 8 others, there are 5 leads of AIMIM, who could support the MGB. Very close fight right now.
And my friend @shwetankbhushan called it days ago on @myindmakers when polls were giving Tejashwi the edge. Do read this piece where he predicted how close the election would be and what are the factors: myind.net/Home/viewArtic…
Ultimately Asaduddin Owaisi is trying to do what Mayawati did years ago, where she would always get a few votes/seats wherever there was a significant Dalit vote. Owaisi is trying to do the same with Muslim vote. He got a few MLAs in #Maharashtra, tried in UP and now in #Bihar.
The biggest loser in this election is @INCIndia, who got 70 seats to contest and are barely leading in 20. The left parties in the MGB are leading in 19 seats. This is how much the Congress has fallen in Bihar. Last time they managed 27/40. This is a hammering. #BiharElection2020

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More from @ask0704

Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
12 Nov
[Thread] After the 2017 Gujarat Elections Delhi media had declared that Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor & Jignesh Mevani will essentially be the future of non BJP politics in Gujarat. Many of us knew that would never happen, and we said so then. This is what ended up happening: (1/n)
Alpesh left the congress and joined BJP, Hardik Patel led congress to a disastrous showing in the #GujaratByPolls where they won 0 seats out of the 8 they held. Jignesh Mevani became an Ind. MLA thanks to Congress not fielding a candidate, but INC won’t do that this time (2/n)
Hardik Patel and his agitation was doomed to fail as I said here a while back: myind.net/Home/viewArtic… .. but the fact that he led the Congress to such an embarrassing result, shows you that the minor gains made have also vanished. The BJP got a whopping 54% of the vote (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
11 Nov
[Thread] One of the most incredible stories in the #BiharElections is that of the ‘Vikassheel Insaan Party’ led by Mukesh Sahani which has a huge base among the Nishad/Mallah community. Earlier in alliance with the UPA, they made an alliance with the BJP/NDA and won 4 seats (1/n)
From the days of Phoolan Devi (who belonged to the same caste) to her tragic death, when it seemed like alliances like the ones that have happened this time would never happen, Indian politics has changed for the better and has come a long way indeed. (2/n)
Last few years BJP has expanded its base, and if the last few elections are any indication- alliances like these will only solidify. It was said by many leftist commentators that BJP was only an upper caste party, and it wasn’t true then, it is certainly not true now (3/n) #Bihar
Read 4 tweets
Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
10 Nov
In Gujarat, @BJP4Gujarat is leading now in ALL the 8 seats that went to the by polls. What the ‘analysts’ won’t tell you is that Hardik Patel - who is leading the Gujarat Congress, massively campaigned everywhere and his impact has been very minimal it seems. #byelection2020
If the trends hold, then it is a big win for @vijayrupanibjp .. in 6 seats the margin is quite comfortable for @BJP4India, 2 are closer. But if they win all 8, Gujarat congress might go into crisis mode again as this is a huge dent against Hardik Patel. #byelection2020
The problem with Congress in Gujarat is the lack of good leadership - they keep passing the baton to the same old guard or chose someone like a Hardik Patel who might be a favorite of a few journalists but won’t work on the ground. Till they get it together, they will keep losing
Read 4 tweets
Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
10 Nov
#BiharElection2020 : NDA - 130, MGB - 97, OTH - 16. NDA is heading for a huge win if these trends hold. This has been a stunning turnaround.
Another story of the day that is good news for @BJP4India ..
Gujarat By Polls - BJP leads 7/8
MP - BJP leads 18/28
UP - BJP leads 5/7
And BJP is leading in the seat in Telangana as well by a significant margin. That is huge! #ByElections
Apart from these, @BJP4India is leading in 2/2 seats in Jharkhand and 2/2 in Karnataka. (The Jharkhand margins are a lot narrower than K’taka and could change). And in Odisha BJP is trailing but by a small margin. They are clearly the no 2 party in Odisha and congress is now no 3
Read 4 tweets
Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
10 Nov
Look at this. Both @IndiaToday and @CNNnews18 are claiming they have accurate numbers .. they’re showing two completely different scenarios #BiharElectionResults .. this is quite crazy :) ImageImage
Last time everyone was showing BJP leading and News 18 showed MGB leading. This time everyone else is showing MGB leading, news 18 is showing BJP leading. This is quite insane .. #BiharElection2020
Now @IndiaToday s numbers are coming closer to what @CNNnews18 s numbers are. This is a tight election .. we might not know for another couple of hours it seems. #BiharElection2020 #BiharElectionResults
Read 5 tweets
Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
10 Nov
Before reacting to the #BiharElectionResults in the first hour, please remember how the news channels got is so wrong last time .. let’s wait and watch what happens. #BiharElection2020
And yes it was so bad that on NDTV, Prannoy Roy had to say how they got it wrong in the post election show. Let the madness begin :) #BiharElection2020
It*
Read 4 tweets

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