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10 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
ANALYSIS From Trump’s Brexit-backing, Johnson back-slapping White House to v different administration under Biden. Will the change put squeeze on PM’s Brexit plan? Insiders admit the short-term politics may be bumpy but Biden win better than Trump 2nd term news.sky.com/story/will-joe…
On Brexit negotiations, govt insiders clear that Biden win (and implications for the IMB, US-UK trade deal if No Deal with EU) don’t change strategy and UK has to have trade deal that works for it ‘home & aboard’ (has to be able to sell to domestic audience) 2/
But picked up view too at top of govt that Biden win does change the impetus for EU/UK deal. Two senior sources telling me think it makes it ‘more likely’ - more stability/predictability and the Trump ‘distraction’ (UK plan B?) gone 3/
But the IMB still big issue for Dublin, Brussels, European Parliament and Biden team. Had thought that IF deal done, article 5 would fall away but talk in govt that these clauses kept (perhaps softened?) as an ‘insurance policy’ or ‘absolute fallback’. Will be v controversial 4/
And on matter of calls between Biden & world leaders, just out from WH is the list of calls in order of France, Germany, Ireland, UK. In calls to Ireland & UK Biden ‘reaffirmed his support for the GFA’ (that not included in No 10 official read out) 5/

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More from @BethRigby

Beth Rigby Profile picture
11 Nov
Why is the Cain resignation so fascinating? Because it speaks to wider question of the changing of guard within No 10. Has PM now come to end of road with his Vote Leave team? 1/
A senior govt figure told me tonight on the Q of whether Cummings might decide too to go with his close ally Cain: “We can live without Dom” > this is the view of course of many many of Johnson’s MPs and senior ministers 2/
I’m also told by a senior govt figure that the PM wanted to change the mood within a No 10 and govt growing evermore in opposition to his party. Allegra Stratton appointment as press secretary (made by PM directly) spoke to that - and was not welcomed by Cain 3/
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
20 Oct
On failure to reach a deal from GM perspective: Govt set the limit at £60m because then the extra GM funding wld be equivalent to that of Lancashire (based on population). PM said he most he could do was £60m despite Burnham being clear £65m was absolute minimum he’d need 1/
GM leaders calculated that to provide 80% furlough scheme & 80% self employed support until end of financial year, they’d need £90m (£15m/month). That was the ask. Came down to £75m. But calculated £65m was absolute minimum required & anything less would leave GM underfunded. 2/
On the talks. PM offered £60m and asked Burnham to put that to the rest of the GM leaders. Explained position and the GM leaders supported Burnham position. The second phone call between PM & Burnham didn’t happen 3/
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
19 Oct
EU-UK talks from UK perspective.
1/ On the process: EU clearly stated today it wants to ‘intensify’ negotiations and work on legal texts - something UK has been pressing for for weeks.This is ‘not unhelpful’ 1/
On the substance. UK view is that EU think any compromise just come from UK, that it is the ‘minor partner’. But this a negotiation and compromise must come from both sides. And refusal to budge on outstanding issues (state aid/fishing) is not basis for talks 2/
As for details of talks
- State Aid: Had movement on both sides. Agreed to principle of independent authority to adjudicate rules. EU rowing back on that *but is landing zone*
- Fishing: “Still acres apart” says govt fig close to talks. Macron ‘leading charge & pretty robust’ 4/
Read 4 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
29 May
I was surprised when Vallance spoke of 8,000 new infections-a-day in the context of PM’s remarks on lifting lockdown, given that the lower the rate of new cases, the more effective track & trace
I asked Hancock & Vallace about track/trace & whether govt wanted to drive down cases or allow tolerable level of transmission in community on Apr 23. Vallance said gives govt advice on what rate of new cases needed for track/trace to work. But didn’t disclose it
And this is what Hancock said on track and trace in context of new cases. (Full transcript of press conference if you want to read in full rev.com/blog/transcrip…)
Read 4 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
27 May
NEW: Told that deputy chief whip Stuart Andrew had a Zoom call with new intake today. Told scores of MPs attended. Told MPs critical of No 10’s handling of the Cummings affair. Call last over an hour 1/
Told by an MP who was on call that colleagues has made it clear to DCW if anything else came out or something was wrong in statement Cummings made on Monday, he would have to go or be sacked 2/
But also told that there were “very few” MPs who called for him to go. MP (who very unhappy) told me there’s a feeling now that the damage is already done. @tamcohen reported on Sat that 2019 intake were “absolutely livid” but only 2 have publicly since called for DC to resign 3/
Read 4 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
22 May
Great scoop by @PippaCrerar. Defence of Cummings begins. Went to parents as he & wife ill & needed help w son. Colleagues point to quote from Dep CMO Harries (Apr 10) where she spoke of accessing family support in ‘exceptional circs’ of parent illness. No 10 fronting this out 1/2
But there is also this. March 18 (day govt took decision to close schools, PM said “I also need to remind parents that, as we have already advised, children should not be left with older grandparents, or older relatives...” (full quote in transcript)
gov.uk/government/spe…
Labour. “If accurate, PM’s chief adviser appears to have breached lockdown rules. Govt guidance very clear: stay at home & no non-essential travel. People do not expect there to be one rule for them & another for Mr Cummings. No 10 needs to provide a very swift explanation”
Read 6 tweets

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