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10 Nov, 7 tweets, 1 min read
Your daily dose of reality

Biden leads

Arizona: 14,746
Georgia: 12,567
Nevada: 36,274
Pennsylvania: 47,483

There's no legal challenge (or recount) which is going to overturn margins of this size. As you can see, Penn alone is now getting towards 50,000
Reminder Trump can't win without Pennsylvania. Even with Pennsylvania, he'd need to flip Georgia and Arizona or Nevada to get over 270. With these margins, it's not going to happen.
Apologies previous tweet had Penn margin at 50k but that is remaining votes, so have corrected.
There's still 2% of the vote remaining in PA. Biden is averaging between 65-75% of the vote in recent batches. We could easily see his margin increase in the state by another 35,000+, at a conservative estimate.
In order to overtake Biden in Pennsylvania, Trump would need 98% of the outstanding votes. Given he's been averaging about 33% this would be...a stretch.
Biden’s lead in Georgia has just leapt to 14,149.
Joe Biden is now 45,673 votes ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania. There are only 44,800 votes left. It isn’t even mathematically possible for the President to overtake.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
12 Nov
Tempting to think what happening in Downing St was the most important political story of the day. I’d counter that the more important story is this👇
Dark whispers have abounded throughout the pandemic that a series of local authorities are at breaking point and on brink of S114. Everyone familiar with LA finance is wondering which might be next and what govt might do. Real and potentially massive impact on people’s lives.
Even Croydon on its own terms is a big story. It has a population of 380k. Would be 11th biggest city in Britain if it weren’t part Greater London. It’s council is now effectively bankrupt.
Read 6 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
11 Nov
Important, important story. Croydon Council issues Section 114 notice (local authority equivalent of bankruptcy). Its finances were somewhat parlous going into 2020 but the impact of the virus on revenues plus extra covid spending has finished it off. bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Lots of anxious heads in local government across the country tonight wondering which council might be next. Lots of councils are on the edge.
Leader of Croydon Council 👇
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
11 Nov
.@BorisJohnson: "One of the many merits of the excellent conversation I had yesterday with President Elect @JoeBiden, was that we both strongly agreed on the need for the UK and the US to stand together to stick up for our values around the world."
"To stand up for free trade, to stand up for @NATO, to fight climate change...it was refreshing to have that conversation, I hope to have many more."
.@BorisJohnson asked by @angelaeagle whether he has advice for his "erstwhile best friend" @realDonaldTrump: "I had and have a good relationship with the prev president, I don't resile from that. It is the duty of all British PMs to have a good relationship with The White House"
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
10 Nov
Some good news on attendance in schools in England.- attendance overall is at 89% so doesn't appear to have been affected by the second lockdown. Attendance was:

92%: primary
87%: secondary
Still 38% of state-funded secondaries had one or more pupils self isolating due to Covid. 8 to 9% had 30 or more pupils self-isolating due to potential contact with a case of coronavirus inside the school. That's 3000+ schools with 30 or more kids off due to covid isolation.
This is also across the whole of England- I suspect the regional picture might be quite a bit different.
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
10 Nov
BREAK: The Welsh government has announced that they are cancelling GCSE, AS and A-level exams in 2021. Students will instead be graded through in-class teacher assessments.

Education minister Kirsty Williams on the decision: "It is impossible to guarantee a level playing field"
Teaching unions in the rest of the country have been arguing the same thing. That with so much pupil and staff absence, lockdown time missed, varying geographical restrictions and worsening educational inequality between rich and poor, exams in 21 are a fools' errand.
After all, we cancelled exams for kids who had basically finished their courses but in England now are planning to press ahead with those for students who have missed a lot of teaching time and in some cases continue to do so.
Read 7 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
10 Nov
As we've been reporting on NN for some time, there's a crisis of lockdown regression taking place in schools. Ofsted today:some young kids "have lapsed back into nappies...others have forgotten how to eat with a knife and fork, or lost their early progress in numbers and words."
Ofsted: "Among older children, inspectors heard that many now lack stamina in reading and writing; some have lost physical fitness; and others are showing signs of mental distress, manifesting in an increase in eating disorders and self-harm."
"Across all age groups, children with SEND have been seriously affected in both their care and education, as the services that families relied on – particularly speech and language services – were unavailable."
Read 4 tweets

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