Tempting to think what happening in Downing St was the most important political story of the day. I’d counter that the more important story is this👇
Dark whispers have abounded throughout the pandemic that a series of local authorities are at breaking point and on brink of S114. Everyone familiar with LA finance is wondering which might be next and what govt might do. Real and potentially massive impact on people’s lives.
Even Croydon on its own terms is a big story. It has a population of 380k. Would be 11th biggest city in Britain if it weren’t part Greater London. It’s council is now effectively bankrupt.
For those not familiar, a S114 notice is issued when a council believes it cannot balance its budget. They’re rare. Last one was Northamptonshire in 2018. It’s big.

For the next three weeks the council cannot spend money without the permission of the Chief Financial Officer.
Labour run Croydon’s finances were parlous going into the pandemic. Some of that was mismanagement, some of it was a decade of profound cuts which had already stripped councils to the very basics. Pandemic hit and its a perfect storm higher obligations plus declining revenues.
Many other councils in a similar position but running on their reserves. Government has given extra money but much of that has been absorbed by extra covid obligations. Hence talk of more councils going into 114. Even if they don’t hit 114, the cuts are coming.

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More from @lewis_goodall

13 Nov
Arizona has now been called for Joe Biden- he’s the first Democrat to win it since 1996. Georgia is outstanding, pending the hand recount. V difficult to see Biden’s margin of 14000+. Trump likely to win NC.

So Biden will flip/is likely to flip 5 states and NE2. Heading for 306. Image
To be clear, flipping Arizona is a big, big deal. It’s been a GOP stronghold for a long, long time. The home of Barry Goldwater and of course, John McCain. It’s voted Democratic only twice since 1948. Image
Question(and worry) for Republicans is whether this is just a blip, spurred partially by Trump’s attitude to their favourite son McCain or whether it’s about longer term demographic change, making AZ more like other states in the region which have been trending Democratic.
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
So if Dominic Cummings is to leave at Christmas the quite considerable political capital the PM spent over Barnard Castle (not to mention what many believe was quite considerable damage to public health messaging) was for roughly seven months.
So either the PM really REALLY thought it was all worth it for Mr Cummings’ contribution for those seven months or it wasn’t actually the plan for him to go all along at Christmas.
In January, Mr Cummings’ wrote his infamous “weirdos and misfits” blog in which he stipulated candidates must be willing to commit to “at least 2 years.” Seems an odd thing to ask for if the plan was for he himself to leave at Christmas. Image
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH CARE HOME VISITS?

There is so much heartache among care home families right now. In many cases, some haven't seen their loved ones since the spring. Those that have have done so at a distance, haven't even been able to hold their hands.

What's going on?
For obvious reasons visiting this year has been limited. What happened in spring was a disaster. Rightly, the onus has been on preventing it happening again.

But there's a cost. The huge psychological impact on families and as I've reported before, the health of those in care.
The govt recognised this and had promised new guidelines to allow visitation. These were published last week. The PM said the govt's guidance would: "strike the right balance between people’s real need to see their loved ones and the risk of spreading the disease in care homes."
Read 21 tweets
11 Nov
Important, important story. Croydon Council issues Section 114 notice (local authority equivalent of bankruptcy). Its finances were somewhat parlous going into 2020 but the impact of the virus on revenues plus extra covid spending has finished it off. bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Lots of anxious heads in local government across the country tonight wondering which council might be next. Lots of councils are on the edge.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
.@BorisJohnson: "One of the many merits of the excellent conversation I had yesterday with President Elect @JoeBiden, was that we both strongly agreed on the need for the UK and the US to stand together to stick up for our values around the world."
"To stand up for free trade, to stand up for @NATO, to fight climate change...it was refreshing to have that conversation, I hope to have many more."
.@BorisJohnson asked by @angelaeagle whether he has advice for his "erstwhile best friend" @realDonaldTrump: "I had and have a good relationship with the prev president, I don't resile from that. It is the duty of all British PMs to have a good relationship with The White House"
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
Your daily dose of reality

Biden leads

Arizona: 14,746
Georgia: 12,567
Nevada: 36,274
Pennsylvania: 47,483

There's no legal challenge (or recount) which is going to overturn margins of this size. As you can see, Penn alone is now getting towards 50,000
Reminder Trump can't win without Pennsylvania. Even with Pennsylvania, he'd need to flip Georgia and Arizona or Nevada to get over 270. With these margins, it's not going to happen.
Apologies previous tweet had Penn margin at 50k but that is remaining votes, so have corrected.
Read 7 tweets

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