Thread by @shayshinecastle

Howdy, #Boulder. Stil recovering from Election Week? Too bad: It's city council time.

Tonight we'll get our monthly COVID briefing. It can be summed up in one word: Yikes.

Or several words from Mayor Sam Weaver: "We are in pretty dire straights. The Front Range is in big trouble."

We've also got second reading/public hearing of the ordinance creating a new police oversight mechanism in Boulder. boulderbeat.news/2020/11/05/bou…

And a couple other little things that will make for a ~4 hr meeting. At least we can be thankful for that.

The gang's all here.

COVID briefing is first. First is Jeff Zayach from BoCo Public Health. We'll also hear from CU and the jail. Presentation: www-static.bouldercolorado.gov/docs/Item_1A_-…

Zayach: "Unfortunately, the news I bring you today is worse than the news I brought you last time. We are headed in the wrong direction .... We are coming to a critical juncture in BoCo."

This is NOT just a student outbreak, Zayach says. There is spread among all age groups, across all populations. And obviously not just in BoCo; (almost) the entire country.

Some pretty bleak numbers in here. Test positivity rate above 7% for BoCo, and +450 cases per 100K in the past two week.

Hospitalizations aren't going up quite as steeply as elsewhere in the state, Zayach shares, but other indicators aren't looking good.

"Steep and rising rates" of infection, positive tests could push us back under stay-at-home orders.

"We are already back to that level" BoCo had with the university peak this late summer/early fall. Surrounding counties are "way above" that, Zayach says.

Per slide 7, CU's share of cases is way down. They're no longer driving this, though "we are still seeing cases climb. We do know there was some partying around Halloween. We need people to not do that," Zayach says.

Zayach: "We are beyond the ability to control this disease" with contact tracing and case investigations. Officials have switched to letters to contact residents, and they can't keep up with all the work. "We don't have the ability to control this spread."

That was different than during the CU outbreak, bc it was one population and there wasn't statewide spread. Outreach efforts could be targeted. The whole of Colorado is swamped right now, Zayach says.

Majority of BoCo cases are in Boulder, Longmont, with the latter actually having more cases per 100K.

Cases are increasing among all age groups, Zayach says. "They're pretty steep increases, and that's what's really concerning to us. ... It makes it really difficult to be able to control the spread."

Similar pattern across the state, Zayach. This pattern is not just BoCo; it's metro Denver, it's state.

4 testing sites in BoCo: Boulder, Longmont, Lyons, Ned (the latter two for high-priority populations.

"We have a lot of testing capacity in Boulder County," Zayach says. "Well above" 450 tests per day.

8% of tests are coming back positive, over 5 days. We need to be below 5% to control with contact tracing and case investigation.

Zayach: "We know that the spread is not isolated. It's community-wide at this point."

"We are now in record new territory" with hospitalizations, Zayach says. 89 just today. "That's a lot of new hospitalizations in a very short time."

Hospitals haven't started cancelling elective surgeries yet, Zayach says. But they are struggling with staffing.

Bed availability isn't "necessarily" an issue, but ICU bed availability is "starting to get lower."

"Hospitalizations of people we don't normally think (of as vulnerable) are staring to occur," Zayach says. "It is def impacting people across Dif age groups. ... It's not just the folks who are the oldest in our community."

There are more than 50 BoCo residents under 44 y.o. hospitalized due to COVID, including 13 in the ICU.

"We have to take this serious," Zayach says. "The time is now."

Estimated 1 in 100 ppl in BoCo are infectious. That may be lower right now than it was yesterday. Three weeks ago, it was 1 in 300-400; 2-3 months ago, it was 1 in 800.

"We've gone from a place where we had much less infection to a place where we now have significant infection in our community," Zayach says.

Zayach: Recently, we were are 65% social distancing, which was keeping us safe. Now, "we need to be around 90%" social distancing to keep spread down.

BoCo has never been that high. Even "at the very beginning," it was ~80-85%, Zayach says.

Zayach: "We now have a massive uphill battle that is going to be challenging not only for us in BoCo but all of us in the state. .. We have to take action now."

Zayach: "Everybody has COVID fatigue. We're tired of it, we don't want it to be here. It is here. ... We're going to have 6-8 months more of this."

Zayach: "I get calls from our chamber. They talk about biz calling up, they're in tears bc they can't make it another day or another week. They're losing their biz; they're losing their livelihoods. They can't meet the needs of their families."

Zayach: "The individual decisions that ppl make are going to absolutely drive what happens in these communities. .... We have to take it seriously. We have to social distance, we have to not gather. ... It's really critical right now. We have to do our part to control this."

Council qs now.

Yates: It looks like the uptick really started to happen in mid-October, so 2 weeks before that was the exposure time. What changed in late Sept. / early Oct. to cause more infections? "There must have been some event."

Zayach: "We don't know exactly, but what you can look at (statewide) is bumps. You'll see a bump around July 4, we know there was more social gathering occurring, less social distancing, less masking. ... We know that happened again around Labor Day."

Zayach: "We also know that COVID fatigue is happening. We hear this over and over and over again."

Zayach: "What drives this and what we know will control this, absolutely moving forward ... if we bring friends and family over to our house, we don't pay attention to social distance and masking, we're going to continue to see this virus go."

Yates not buying that people "suddenly" stopped following guidance. "Is it possible that K-12 kids are acting as spreaders and bringing it home" after schools reopened?

Zayach: "It's not."

CDPHE has studied it. 1M+ enrollments across the state, and the numbers are low.

"We are not seeing the schools as super-spreader sites. ... It's being brought into schools. ... Schools are not the place where it's happening."

We saw that at CU, Zayach says. Spread wasn't happening in the classroom. It was parties.

Swetlik: What's BoCo guidance on flu vaccines? Do they want as many ppl as possible to get vaccinated?
Zayach: "We have definitely been asking ppl to get vaccinated. It's really important to get the vaccine, especially this year."

Flu gets all age groups and puts ppl in the hospital, which are already strained by COVID. A vaccine will reduce the severity if you do get it, and so lessen the # of hospitalizations. "It's going to help our hospitals out."

Friend: I read an article about a BVSD party bus and maybe super-spreader from there. CU has some sticks and carrots it can use; what happens when it's high school students?

Zayach: "We have the ability to take ppl to court and either fine them or have jail time."

"We have not taken that kind of action at this point," Zayach says. We've followed up with parents at BVSD.

That particular situation spread that disease, which "is exactly how this can get out of control," Zayach says. Our work with BVSD has been successful; we're going to continue to work on it bc some ppl are not following the guidance.

"It's critical that they do. The put everybody at risk."

Friend: "This is a really bleak update or report."

Friend: Should we look at harsher penalties? It seems like education is not as successful as it needs to be. This has impacted our whole community.

"Why are we wagging our finger at ppl when ppl are dying and biz are going under?"

Zayach: "What we don't want to do is fine and take everybody to jail. ... We don't want to drive ppl underground. There's a fine line there" and we're still working on getting it right.

Zayach continues to believe that educating people is better than "putting kids in jail." ... "We know we still have some ppl who are not going to follow that, which is going to facilitate the spread of this disease."

Friend: Are there any stay-at-home orders from the state for any counties?
Zayach: "Not at this point."
Friend: Gov. Polis has indicated he won't move to stay-at-home. But "stay home is what's going to bring these numbers down" so why aren't we doing that?

Zayach: "It's a fine line as well." There are new restrictions, and "you have to give those time to operate."

Nobody wants to be under stay-at-home, he says, but we've got "take responsibility for this."

"We need a solid 2 wk period where ppl say I'm not going to go to other's houses," not go to any events, stay home with my family, making sure I'm masking, washing my hands ... "then we can get ahold of this."

If people don't do that, we will have no choice but to move to stay at home orders. "We don't have a ton of tools left at this point," Zayach says.

Friend: It sounds like you're telling ppl to stay at home without orders to do so. I appreciate that.

80% increase in hospitalizations over past 2 weeks in BoCo, Emily Payne from BoCo public heath says. The region saw 90% rise.

Wallach Sigh-O-Meter: 1

Wallach: Why was Broomfield's rate lower in one of those charts?
Payne: It was a count, not a rate by population. (smaller pop = smaller total numbers) BUT "They actually have a higher rate than we do."

Wallach: Are we utilizing our hospital surge capacity?
Zayach: No. We're not at the point yet. There are ways to increase capacity in case we get there. But again, staffing is the biggest issue right now.

Wallach: What about ventilators and PPE?
Payne: No BoCo hospitals are reporting PPE shortages. Ventilator availability is still good.

Wallach: How are we getting this message out to the public so they can understand the seriousness of the problem?
Zayach: We are on social media in every single aspect. People obviously ... either they're not getting it, or not seriously enough that it's driving behavioral change

Zayach: We talked to the Chamber today to discuss "taking a different tact" to make sure "people who are not in the middle of this" can understand the impacts.

Zayach: It's about "telling more of those stories. ... When ppl understand ... the humanistic part of this, the community comes together. But we obviously need to shift that messaging right now."

Wallach: We have been emphasizing education since the beginning of the pandemic. We're 8 months in. Obviously our strategies have not been entirely successful.

"I think we need to begin to address the failings of an educational emphasis."

Young: Where do we need more targeted outreach?
Payne: We're looking at race/ethnicity, age, school environments, geography, etc. Hoping to share that on a weekly basis.

Payne: "Although it's good to look at these things, we have to realize it's pretty (community) wide right now."

Weaver saying Stazio testing site will stay open for awhile.

Weaver, referencing NYT op-ed: We are on a path to the vaccine (something Zayach also mentioned earlier) so there's a "light at the end of the tunnel." That means "now is the time to double down" bc it will be awhile before that is widely available.

"A life saved now is a life that may be saved forever."

Weaver lost someone in his family this week to COVID, he says.

Weaver: "This is a time, if there is going to be relief ... by next year ... we need to make sure we carry as many of our community members across that finish line as we can."

CU up to bat now.

Patrick O'Rourke: The classrooms are not centers of spread. We're doing smaller social events so students still can engage and we can discourage larger events.

But we did switch to remote learning for the rest of the semester. Last day of in-person is Friday.

"We made that decision bc ... this is a time students will be transitioning away from the campus."

All students, faculty and staff who request tests can get them, O'Rourke says. We are "strongly encouraging" anyone who is traveling over the holidays to "please come in and get tested."

Isolation space will be available over the holiday period, O'Rourke says.

Current conditions: September spike has "normalized." Rates of infection at CU are "similar" to county rates. "We're seeing some uptick, though, just like the rest of the community. ... Not exponential growth" as in September. About 3% positivity rate.

Currently 37 students in isolation.

O'Rourke: Spring semester will "start a little bit later" than typical. Spring break has been cancelled. "We recognized it was probably an unsafe situation" to have students traveling around the country / world and then coming back to the community.

"We will be building some mid-week wellness days into the calendar .... for students to have the opportunity to recharge," O'Rourke says.

25 students suspended; 100 on probation.

"We don't take those decisions lightly but we know we have to act when students" put the safety of the community at risk, O'Rourke says.

O'Rourke says when spring semester will start. I heard it, went to type it and forgot it in that 1 second it took me to move my hand onto the keys.

Jan. 13, the Internet tells me.

Young: How are you making sure all CU affiliate results are being reported?
O'Rourke: All the tests we run are reported. There is data from where other labs, etc. ID CU affiliates. Both those are being combined in our numbers.

Wallach: Are there metrics that will trigger 100% online at CU?
O'Rourke: If we got to "level red" (stay-at-home triggers) would cause us to go completely online. Right now we're staying with our in-person plan for spring.

"That structure is useful" in trying to moderate their behavior, O'Rourke says. "We actually think it's useful" for in-person learning to be in our toolkit "for as long as we possibly can."

O'Rourke: Most of the students we've interacted with RE: discipline have a "very low relapse rate."

OH I totally forgot to share this great Colorado Sun story in which Mayor Weaver is a central figure. coloradosun.com/2020/11/02/col…

Weaver: "Things are way better now (at CU) than when we started." Talking about outreach and control efforts, etc.

Still on COVID. Hearing from Sheriff Joe Pelle about the conditions at BoCo jail. Outbreaks in jails/prisons have been BAD across the nation.

Pelle: "Double bunking and crowding are the standard" at facilities like this, so outbreaks are bad.

"It has created conflict and concern" from police chiefs, community about "dealing with behaviors," Pelle says. But the goal here is to make sure there's space for people who "need to be in jail" — violent crimes such as sexual assault, domestic violence, homicide, etc.

"We are not taking non-violent" misdemeanors or minor offenses. "So justice is being delayed for a lot of people," Pelle says. There are ppl with multiple warrants who are not being arrested.

It's frustrating a lot of police officers, he says.

But the "worst thing that could happen" is having to close the jail. If our deputies get sick, we won't have people to staff the jail.

560-bed capacity. 480-500 beds operating before COVID. Now, under 300. Today, ~280 beds.

Pelle: We are isolating people until we know they are safe, then they move into the general population. "We've had several small outbreaks" but we've been able to keep the jail as a whole healthy.

Pelle: "I don't see this situation changing until there is effective treatment or vaccine. I don't know what the alternatives are."

Chief Herold has expressed regret/remorse that jails aren't available for unhoused folks to community groups and to council. That's RE: the camping ban.

Friend: Are we looking at other crimes that are predictive of violence, even if the crime itself isn't violent?

Uses stalking as an example, which used to not be considered violent but often leads to violence.

Pelle included stalking in the list of crimes where perpetrators need to be locked up even during COVID.

Colorado has a broad list of crimes that are subject to jail, he says, based on victims rights legislation.

Friend: What other crimes are on that list?
Pelle: Minor assault, threats, etc. Those are all on the list. We're not doing full analysis on the street to predict if someone will become violent.

Friend: Are you looking at full criminal history?
Pelle: No. We're accepting ppl with 3+ outstanding warrants in the jail, though

Yates: Have other jails created additional space to "jail the people that are typically jailed" without exposing inmates or staff? "If there was an extra building to you that was appropriately secure ...?

Pelle: I haven't heard of that. "I think the issue is probably staffing." You take a building that's not normally a jail, to secure it, staffing requirements become very intensive.

Pelle: Right now, 2 staff can care for 64 inmates, Pelle says. In a ware house space or something, you could only put low-risk, minor offenders — ppl we are not accepting in our jail right now.

Ppl we have now are more violent offenders, more risk to the community.

Yates: "We do hear from our police dept and community members that they are frustrated bc ppl that would normally be arrested" aren't being arrested. "If it's a staffing and funding issue, that would be helpful to know."

Pelle: People being arrested on minor offenses are spending about 12 hours at the jail, pre-COVID. "So we're not taking people off the street for any length of time. We're essentially a revolving door."

"The question is, at what risk do we operate a revolving door?" Pelle asks. "People being arrested for petty theft, trespassing, camping violation, they're not spending any time in jail. And they won't in the future."

Very illuminating answers.

Chief Herold: "This is why I never wanted to be a sheriff. Running a jail is very complicated. I support the sheriff's decision making. A cluster in the jail would be devastating. I have called other jails in Colorado asking for help with some of our repeat offenders."

"There's no doubt about it our crime rates are going up, especially property crimes," Herold says.

"The sheriff has helped me out on situations where I need people to be housed," Herold says. "I know he's just as frustrated as the police and the community."

Pelle: "We have made a number of changes to this based on input from the police dept. We are def jailing ppl who are committing burglaries to biz that have been closed."

Pelle: "We had the complaint that ppl could not be arrested ... so we carved out an exception."

One more COVID update: Federal reimbursement. Presentation here: www-static.bouldercolorado.gov/docs/Item_1D_-…

Chris Meschuk, interim city manager: We will keep drive-through Stazio testing site open for the foreseeable future.

ADD A BIKE LANE.

No new stimulus package likely before the end of the year. Boulder got ~$4.7M in CARES funds. Here's how they used some of that $$: boulderbeat.news/2020/08/08/bou…

"Basically the parties are too far apart in the dollar amount they are willing to accept," Carl Castillo, Boulder's lobbyist, says. "There is funding in the packages that are being negotiated for states and cities, but it is a smaller amount."

The CARES $$ has to be spent by the end of 2020. Only for COVID-related expenses, such as the relief center for unhoused residents.

As previously reported, Boulder will subsidize third-party restaurant delivery for a bit, in exchange for a 15% cap on service fees. High fees were really hurting local restaurants. boulderbeat.news/2020/10/10/bou…

Spending $250,000 on that.
Plus $150,000 on a matching "buy local" campaign. (Buy something from a local store, get a gift card in a matching amount from the city, also for local biz.)

City spending "a good share" of CARES funds that havne't yet been spent on keeping the Stazio testing site open.

Any remaining money will be used to shore up existing programs, things like rental assistance, mental health services, child care, nonprofit and biz support, etc.

Castillo: "We all know the need is tremendous and there is likely to be additional need for those budgets."

That's it for COVID news. Let's wrap it up. @threadreaderapp please unroll. Thank you!