Trinh Profile picture
11 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
South Korea got the treatment for THAAD where South Korea firms were forced to close like Lotte & car makers on shore & then they banned tourists etc.

So? Nothing happened as small share of GDP (loud bark little bite). Lotte diversified out of China & other Korean firms too.
South Korea kept THAAD & China basically reserved its actions. In Asia, this happens all the time. No news here.

Japan had that in 2014. South Korea in 2016. The Philippines too at some pt as fruits got held up at ports for having bad "worms" etc. Remember Vietnam in 2014?
One of the key consequences of such action is that South Korea diversified out of China as its dependency was too great & FDI into ASEAN started to exceed China from 2014.

Same with Japan. I imagine Australia will try to diversify

That said, Australia & China are complementary.
As in, unlike SK & JP, Australia is resource & land rich.

Does China need Australia? Yes. Does Australia need China? Yes.

Dependency doesn't just go one way. Australia will learn from this & that it needs to diversify as well & that China is still important.

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More from @Trinhnomics

12 Nov
Another great vote by California on Proposition 19. To understand this, we must go back to Prop 13, which basically is property tax in CA that's 1-2% of purchase value per yr (yes, pretty high) & the increase is capped by inflation.

Means older owners pay less taxes than new.
As property prices in California go up by double digits but inflation by less, then the assessed value of the property & the tax rate is not AT MARKET VALUE.

Low property taxes = inventive to not sell ur house & move b/c u'll get taxed on 1-2% of market price vs price ages ago.
So what? The unfair thing is this, say your parents were just teachers but they bought a house in Malibu say 40 years ago when it was dirt cheap & now worth say 50 million dollars. Before Prop 19, u'd inherit their cheap tax rate too & that's rather unfair as new buyers pay more.
Read 6 tweets
12 Nov
Susan Rice'll have to be confirmed by the Senate that is now 50 Republican vs 46 Democrats (48 if we count the independents that will lean D anyway). That means they have to take 2 seats in Georgia on 5 January 2020 to gain 50-50 to give Kamala Harris the deciding vote. Unlikely.
All the GOP has to do is gain 1/2 seat to retain & both GOP candidates led the race but didn't have >50% so we have runoffs. The losing side is more motivated to vote so odds of the Democrats pulling a "Blue Wave" are low.

Democrats'll have house at smallest margin in 18 yrs.
Question: Why is Susan Rice considered soft on China?

Did u know that she was considered a replacement for Hillary Clinton in 2012 but due to controversy related to Benghazi that she withdrew. Her comments about the event made people think she misled the public.
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
SF follows Berkeley to ban natural gas. So instead of making housing cheaper & more affordable, it now shuts off a rather cheap source of energy & force people to use electricity, which is unstable & expensive in California.

Haha.
California net electric generation by source:

#1 Natural Gas.

SF just banned that. I wonder what those people were thinking. Btw, it makes it more expensive for the poor as it forces people to go 100% electric, which derives most of its generation by, wait for it: NATURAL GAS!
Just think about it. California #1 source of electricity production is natural gas but then Berkeley & SF just banned that for new construction.

Still use natural gas via electricity but will be more expensive.

Meanwhile #1 energy consumption is natural gas. Genius at work.
Read 6 tweets
10 Nov
Recycling plastic is a myth as 91% of plastic is not recycled. The idea of recycling plastic has caused people to be complacent & consume even more plastic.

The easiest way to be environmentally friendly is to reduce consumption as we’re not good at recycling, esp in Asia.
Whenever u read a fashion brand or whatever brand saying they are environmentally friendly because they use recycled plastic, remember this: why not buy organic materials to start.

We live in a plastic fantastic world where everyone is plastic.

It is oil based. Fossil fuel.
Your tooth brush, plastic & an oil derivative. Your makeup holder, plastic. Your clothes, plastic. Your shoes, plastic.

Your food, wrapped in plastic. Your takeaway, contained by plastic. Your electronics, plastic

Ur bottled water, plastic.

We live in a plastic fantastic world
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
Good morning: It's risk on in Asia! Best so far in USD in 5 days:

Nikkei 225 +9.6%
Australia +9.1%
Singapore +8.6%
Indonesia +8.4%
IDR making a big U-turn since the Omnibus Bill passed on 5 October 2020.

Don't mean to blow my own horn but I did say that it's a good thing for Indonesia. Since then, equities, rates, FX have done well. In fact, amongst the best in EM!

🇮🇩👏🏻🔥
I don't cover Brazil and Chile but they are even doing better than Asian peers in the past 5 days in USD

Risk ON 🔥🇧🇷🇨🇱

That was my call: the conclusion of US elections = certainty = risk-on as USD falls & risk assets rally, especially laggards w/ decent fundamentals such as ID
Read 9 tweets
8 Nov
2020 elections have something for everyone 🇺🇸🥂:
*Voter turnout highest since 1990s, even w/ Covid-19; Americans felt strongly enough to turn in ballots
*Democrats won the presidential & Republicans held on to the Senate majority & flipped seats in House
*Americans voted centists
Americans are more in the middle than in the extreme, as in more human rights & less state intervention, even in CA:

*California voted against racial discrimination/preference for public decisions & rent control
*Voted for criminals to get right to vote after serving term.
Despite out spending money, Democrats still struggle to regain the Senate & lost some House seats. Interesting trends emerging & the demographic shift in the US to tilt more Hispanics who are more in the center.

Obvs depressing news as well given how poorly run US elections are.
Read 4 tweets

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