Good morning: It's risk on in Asia! Best so far in USD in 5 days:
Nikkei 225 +9.6%
Australia +9.1%
Singapore +8.6%
Indonesia +8.4%
Nikkei 225 +9.6%
Australia +9.1%
Singapore +8.6%
Indonesia +8.4%
IDR making a big U-turn since the Omnibus Bill passed on 5 October 2020.
Don't mean to blow my own horn but I did say that it's a good thing for Indonesia. Since then, equities, rates, FX have done well. In fact, amongst the best in EM!
🇮🇩👏🏻🔥
Don't mean to blow my own horn but I did say that it's a good thing for Indonesia. Since then, equities, rates, FX have done well. In fact, amongst the best in EM!
🇮🇩👏🏻🔥
I don't cover Brazil and Chile but they are even doing better than Asian peers in the past 5 days in USD
Risk ON 🔥🇧🇷🇨🇱
That was my call: the conclusion of US elections = certainty = risk-on as USD falls & risk assets rally, especially laggards w/ decent fundamentals such as ID
Risk ON 🔥🇧🇷🇨🇱
That was my call: the conclusion of US elections = certainty = risk-on as USD falls & risk assets rally, especially laggards w/ decent fundamentals such as ID
But the best has got to be Poland in USD in the past five days. You know I like EPOL & EWZ even though I don't cover these guys. Look at that! On fire!
🔥🇵🇱👏🏻
🔥🇵🇱👏🏻
When I analyze a market, usually look at the sustainability of existing trends rather than consensus. Occasionally, I veer away from consensus & that usually gets u rather good value for decent fundamentals if right.
For example: Indonesia. Went bullish.
asiatimesfinancial.com/protecting-few…
For example: Indonesia. Went bullish.
asiatimesfinancial.com/protecting-few…
Indonesia negative news:
*Rise of infections = lock-down fear (said it wouldn't do & that's what happened, restrictions eased
*Changing BI mandate = gov tried but investors balked (I said ID shouldn't & wouldn't as needs foreigners)
*Omnibus = news = negative but I said positive
*Rise of infections = lock-down fear (said it wouldn't do & that's what happened, restrictions eased
*Changing BI mandate = gov tried but investors balked (I said ID shouldn't & wouldn't as needs foreigners)
*Omnibus = news = negative but I said positive
People tend to believe in their feelings, gut, emotions & like "brand name topics" without thinking broader. Negative op eds on the Omnibus Bill are an example of that. Most of them lacked details & just full of value driven disdain. Few understood Indonesia economic structure.
So it's easy to look at those trends in Indonesia and think it will fall further from the abyss but if you look at why it wouldn't then u will see that Indonesian policy makers have reaction functions & if bad news priced in, then good news isn't. As in a U-turn from status quo.
Usually, in emerging markets, economies either fall off the cliff & don't come back or make massive U-turns when they confront severe economic weakness. An example of that is Vietnam in 2011. If u read the gospel of Vietnam news today, u forget that it was the WORST story in 2011
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