Jeet Heer Profile picture
11 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1. So what the hell is going on? Trump refuses to concede election, is trying to undermine results with conspiracy theories and has purged the civilian leadership of Pentagon & replaced it with ultra-loyalists. How worried should we be?
2. First of all, I don't think people should be shamed if they are worried. What Trump is doing is very unusual and troublesome. Ronald Brownstein is an eminently centrist liberal and even he's concerned.
3. No one should be complacent but it's important to take each Trump step and see what he could maximally achieve. The lawsuits are all jokes, are getting laughed out of court & aren't enough in any case to overturn Biden's substantial lead.
4. Military is a bit of black box but the moment of crisis was during the Black Lives Matter protests when military leaders rejected Trumps call to use troops. Trump's civilian goons will help him cover-up stuff but officer class isn't going to intervene in election.
5. Trump's moves are best seen as corrupt (using election fraud claim to raise funds, putting in loyalists to selectively declassify on Russiagate) but the actual mechanism of a coup aren't there yet. Trump is setting himself up to be GOP leader & run again.
6. Again: no complacency. Keep vigilant & powder dry. Be prepared to take to mobilize mass protests if necessary. But also don't panic & focus on specific fights. More here: thenation.com/article/politi…

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More from @HeerJeet

13 Nov
1. Amid all the liberal fear of a coup, it's worth noting that the real hazard of the current moment is almost the reverse: Trump has become so disengaged from governing that basic White House functions aren't being taken care of.
2. Most of the coup stuff is Trump day dreaming about some way to stay in power. In the meantime, Covid is raging out of control and there's almost no possibility that Trump will sign the needed stimulus.
3. Trump's presidency has always been more about performance than actually governing. But that's become more extreme after election. Back in March, he could still sign a stimulus check. Now he's gone AWOL.
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
1. People are underestimating the size of Biden's victory for reasons mentioned in this useful thread: lots of votes left to count in blue states & also historic high turnout. Combined, it looks like a higher share of voters supported Biden than supported Reagan in 1984
2. 2020 election was double sided: a massive popular vote rejection of Trump combined with Dems' losing seats in House & falling short (so far!) in Senate. The two facts are connected: By building broad anti-Trump coalition, Biden undermined downballot Dems.
3. Biden won his landslide by making the national election a referendum against Trump, which meant courting GOP and GOP leaning voters by saying that the problem is Trump, not the GOP. This gave Never Trumpers permission to vote for Biden but also permission to split ticket.
Read 6 tweets
6 Nov
1. As I and many others have predicted, Trump, faced with defeat, is not going to concede and will construct a myth of a stolen election and being stabbed in the back. The question is where does this take us?
2. I think the fears of a coup or constitutional crisis are overblown. The military has fairly explicitly rejected intervening (both after BLM protests and after election). The nuisance suits Trump is filing are far short of Bush v. Gore.
3. The more pressing danger than a coup is Trump delegitimizing election and nursing stabbed-in-back mythos. Especially dangerous not just for future of Trump & Trumpism but also if GOP & right-wing media buy into it (as opinion side of Fox & Lindsey Graham have)
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
1. Trump's endgame strategy has been pretty explicitly outlined by him & his advisors: use early and incomplete vote count to declare victory, litigate in courts, drag it out & muddy the water. In other words, if not victory then delegitimize Biden victory.
2. How to stop Trump from sabotaging the vote count? William Kristol suggest that GOP officials and former leaders like George W. Bush can help shame Trump into not doing this. The most generous to this idea is: are you fucking out of your mind?
3. We've had 4 years of the vast majority of GOP officials sticking with Trump no matter what. And George W. Bush, despite rumored private grumblings, has done not one public act to repudiate Trump by name. Relying on this group to save American democracy is absurd.
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
1. Since he was born 100 years ago I want to say a few words about Santos Hernandez (1920-1968), who many have reason to be grateful for, not least because he fathered and nurtured an amazing family.
2. Santos Hernandez was born in Mexico and moved to the United States in 1941, initially working on farms and packing houses, where he met his wife Aurora, who hailed from Texas.
3. Aurora and Santos had six kids: Mario, Gilbert, Richard, Lucinda, Ishmael, and Jaime. Both parents were creative -- Santos had painted when younger. The kids grew up in a household where everyone drew.
Read 8 tweets
30 Oct
1. Trump's closing message in 2020 is definitely confused and defuse. Very different than 2016 where he closed strongly, with "Crooked Hillary" message in sync with a rhetorical populism that portrayed Trump as foe of the global elite.
2. Trump's 2016 campaign was disgusting on all sorts of levels, but simply in terms of message discipline, especially after Bannon took charge, it was very focused. The problem he has now is that his core anti-system message only works if you are challenger.
3. Since he's now the status quo, economic populism has receded from Trump's messaging. It's still there in dribs and drabs but doesn't structure his argument as it did in the heady Steve Bannon days of 2016. Trump 2020 talks more about stock market than jobs.
Read 4 tweets

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