As far as I can tell Trump campaign fraud claims fall into 4 buckets: 1) people voting who shouldn’t have (eg dead) 2) election official wrongdoing (eg rules broken) 3) their poll watchers not getting full access 4) complaints about mail ballots arriving after election day
But...
Number 4 questionable - allowed for military ballots, other rules were agreed before the vote
Number 3 a side issue - not an example of fraudulent votes and disputed in many places.
Examples given for 1 + 2 are v limited. Being looked into. Some circulating online disproved.
Remember Trump isn’t just claiming a few voting irregularities. He’s alleging a conspiracy to steal the election from him.
The Trump campaign therefore needs to provide evidence for a) widespread and systematic vote fraud b) Trump being the target.
That hasn’t happened yet.
Also said before but worth repeating: This is not 2000.
In that election Bush tipped over the 270 electoral mark by a single state (Florida) and 500ish votes.
In this election Biden tipped over that mark by multiple states and 1000s or tens of thousands of votes.
This means for a court challenge to succeed in changing the result, tens of thousands of ballots would need to be invalidated in multiple states. Which is a tall order.
One last point - this is something to keep an eye on. The president is technically picked not by the average voter but by ‘electors’, the people from each state who cast those ‘electoral votes’ we always talk about. They normally do so in line with their state’s vote. But...
... what happens if the state vote is unclear? That could be an argument for the state legislature picking its own electors. And which party controls the state legislatures in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin? The Republicans.
If that sounds wild-eyed, do read the relevant 1,200-word chunk of this forensic Atlantic piece pre-election about the chaos that could follow. Author had numerous Repub sources in Pennsylvania indicating they were considering that route. theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
Which is a long way of saying the Trump campaign legal challenges could have a secondary purpose - not just overturning votes but creating enough confusion for state legislatures to justify appointing electors. (Maybe. Maybe not. Let’s see.) end
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John Bolton:
"...All candidates are entitled to pursue appropriate election-law remedies if they have evidence supporting their claims. They should certainly not lie. The 1st Republican president was called 'Honest Abe' for a reason"
1/
Mitt Romney, Repub Utah senator, on Trump
"He is wrong to say the election was rigged, corrupt and stolen - doing so damages the cause of freedom here and around the world... and recklessly inflames destructive and dangerous passions."
2/
Pat Toomey, Repub Pennsylvania senator
“There’s simply no evidence anyone has shown me of any widespread corruption or fraud"
“The president’s speech last night was very disturbing to me because he made very, very serious allegations without any evidence to support it"
3/
Good morning from Washington! 5.30am here. My dreams are now entirely made up of vote margins. US went to sleep Wednesday night with the 5 big states yet to call. Wakes on Friday to the same. But we are edging towards a result...
Big change of course is Georgia. Biden 917 votes ahead, 2ish% to count. This doesn’t guarantee victory there. Military ballots still to come in (likely good for Trump, don’t know how many). Biden team yesterday said it was touch+go. But 36hr trend has been towards Biden.
Worth noting just how remarkable it is Dems could win Georgia. Last blue in 1992. Republican win margins in last five elections: 11.7% (2000), 16.6% (04), 5.2% (08), 7.8% (12), 5.2% (16). Part of the Deep South may have flipped on Trump.
Good morning! The never-ending election continues. 5.30am in DC. Counting through the night. Both Trump + Biden still have pathways as Tuesday’s election stretches into Thurs. Harder for president, but not done yet. On and on and on it goes.
Where things stand
NEVADA
Biden 8k-ish up. 86% counted
ARIZONA
Biden 68k-ish up. 86% counted
(Win both, Biden is president)
N CAROLINA
Trump 77k-ish up. 95% counted
GEORGIA
Trump 18k-ish up. 96% counted
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 165k-ish up. 89% counted
(Alaska tbc, will be R)
The basic dynamics:
Can Trump erase Biden’s margins in Nevada and Arizona? Both AP + Fox called Arizona for B. Trump camp insisting they’ll win.
Can Biden overtake Trump in Georgia + Pennsylvania? Every vote drop (mainly postal) narrows Trump’s leads.