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Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
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12 Nov, 6 tweets, 1 min read
1/ So let's talk about the ANC. A couple of high-level views:

- It's pretty obvious there are no big shifts. Stable to up for the ANC in aggregate.
- Should be noted that many wards were not contested by all the other parties, so the ANC numbers probably a little inflated.
2/ Limpopo: ANC contested 4 wards

ANC %
Giyani 1: 77% (-7)
Ba-Phalaborwa 19: 75% (-1)
Polokwane 14: 63% (+9)
Fetakgomo 34: 78% (+25)

Stable in aggregate.
3/ North West: ANC contested 5 wards

ANC %
Moretele 8: 51% (-13)
Madibeng 29: 46% (+17 and takes ward from DA)
Rustenburg 2: 49% (+1)
JB Marks 9: 73% (+3)
JB Marks 18: 83% (+2)

Slightly up in aggregate.
4/ Mpumalanga: ANC contested 4 wards

ANC %
Emalahleni 18: 19% (-3)
Emalahleni 23: 79% (+1)
Bushbuckridge 31: 65% (-10)
Bushbuckridge 36: 79% (-2)

Nothing too remarkable.
5/ Free State: ANC Contested 4 wards

ANC %
Mohokare 6 (data still incoming)
Matjhabeng 3: 33% (+7)
Mangaung 28: 83% (+7)
Mangaung 33: 72% (+17)

Again, can't say too much since some parties didn't contest.
I gotta go, but will do rest of ANC and EFF a little later.

Same trends!

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More from @DawieScholtz

Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
13 Nov
1/ My sincere apologies for the delay. Here is the full ANC picture as promised, continuing from the thread below which already does Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Free State and North West.

We start with Gauteng below!
2/ Gauteng part 1: ANC contested 14

ANC % in each:
Merafong 23: 75% (+8)
Mogale 11: 66% (-7)
Midvaal 6: 76% (+1)
Emfuleni 43: 66% (-12)
Emfuleni 21: 63% (-1)
Emfuleni 16: 49% (+19 and gain from DA)
EKU 103: 78% (-)
EKU 89: 52% (+1)
EKU 60: 72% (-8)
JHB 9: 14% (-13)
3/ Gauteng part 2:

ANC % in each:
JHB 41: 68% (-3)
JHB 68: 33% (-6)
JHB 120: 45% (+5)
JHB 130: 68% (-11)

Looks like both the DA and the ANC lost vote to smaller parties in city of Johannesburg.
Read 9 tweets
Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
12 Nov
1/ Yesterday was total DA disaster:

Western Cape DA % by ward

Cape Town 14: 73% (-7)
Cape Town 88: 22% (+3)
Saldanha 13: 47% (-28)
Paarl 3: 68% (-16)
George 8: 36% (-19)
George 14: 33% (-20)
George 17: 38% (-25)
George 27: 38% (-18)
Knysna 9: 76% (-17)
Knysna 10: 68% (-19)
2/ It contested 10 wards in the Western Cape and dropped double digits in 8 of the 10.
3/ The DA also contested in Gauteng

Emfuleni 16: 45% (-12 and ANC wins it)
Midvaal 6: 13% (-3)
Mogale City 11: 7% (-3)
JHB 9: 22% (-25 and Al-Jama-Ah wins it)
JHB 68: 14% (-31 and PA wins it)
JHB 120: 26% (-22 and ANC wins it)

Losing vote with coloured, muslim & Indian voters
Read 8 tweets
Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
11 May 19
1/ So I've done some very interesting detailed demographic analysis for @News24 on the election. Check out this detailed thread for it.

Important note: This is a provisional first view done with only half the vote in or so. Will update with everything later.
2/ Deep-dive analysis: Black voters

National 2014
ANC 80.3%
DA 4.9%
EFF 9.6%

National 2019
ANC 71%
DA 5%
EFF 13.9%

The IFP and smaller parties got more this time.
3/ Deep-dive analysis: Black voters

Gauteng 2014
ANC 75%
DA 6.5%
EFF 13.4%

Gauteng 2019
ANC 70.1%
DA 6.5%
EFF 18.7%

The ANC held at just about the 'red line' (70%) which is why they're close to 50 in GP.
Read 11 tweets
Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
27 Feb 19
1/ So my thoughts on Gauteng: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

By far the most interesting and important one to watch during this election.

With my best-guess assumptions:
ANC - 48
DA - 31
EFF - 12

ANC biggest for sure, but it's close between ANC and 50. Could go either way.
2/ Let's start by looking at recent electoral history in Gauteng (ANC-DA-EFF):

2011: 60-33-0
2014: 55-29-10
2016: 46(!)-37-11

So the ANC went-14% between 2011 and 2016. Two reasons: Turnout and massive township losses.
3/ Turnout is one of the reasons why the ANC is losing % in GP. The DA base turns out like crazy, the ANC base doesn't and I think it'll happen again this year. Turnout % (suburban-township):

2011: 66-54
2014: 81-74
2016: 71-53

That 2016 gap of 18% was HUGE. DA needs 10%+
Read 8 tweets
Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
29 Jan 19
1/ Today's an interesting one: North West! Like Limpopo, North West is key to the EFF's tally.

High-level expectation:
ANC losses
EFF gains
DA stagnant or minor gains
2/ The ANC's been bleeding support in North West for the last three elections. Overall results (ANC-DA-EFF):

2011: 75-16-0
2014: 68-12-12
2016: 59-15-16

This is the first 'core ANC' province where the ANC fell below the 60% barrier in 2016.
3/ The ANC's losses in North West are being driven by township inroads by the EFF. The North West Township voting pattern (ANC-DA-EFF):

2011: 87-6-0
2014: 80-4-11
2016: 71-5-15

So that's -16% (!) for the ANC in 5 years in North West in the townships, with all of it to the EFF
Read 8 tweets
Dawie Scholtz Profile picture
22 Jan 19
1/ So next stop: LIMPOPO!

This is one gets way too little attention and analysis. It has been a vital ground zero for ANC losses in the last decade.

High-level expectation, compared to 2014:
ANC losses
EFF gains
DA minor gains

But still an easy ANC hold.
2/ History shows that the ANC obviously comes off a very, very high level here:

Previous Limpopo election results (ANC - EFF - DA):
2011: 83-0-7
2014: 79-10-7
2016: 69-17-8

Special note: That's -14% for the ANC in 5 years (!) and all going to the EFF. LM is crucial for EFF.
3/ The ANC has historically been incredibly dominant in Limpopo because of demographics. The black electorate is roughly 2.45 mn of the 2.55 mn voters in Limpopo.

In the past, when the ANC was almost uncontested in the townships, it therefore won enormous majorities in Limpopo
Read 9 tweets

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