Thread by @DawieScholtz

1/ Today's an interesting one: North West! Like Limpopo, North West is key to the EFF's tally.

High-level expectation:
ANC losses
EFF gains
DA stagnant or minor gains

2/ The ANC's been bleeding support in North West for the last three elections. Overall results (ANC-DA-EFF):

2011: 75-16-0
2014: 68-12-12
2016: 59-15-16

This is the first 'core ANC' province where the ANC fell below the 60% barrier in 2016.

3/ The ANC's losses in North West are being driven by township inroads by the EFF. The North West Township voting pattern (ANC-DA-EFF):

2011: 87-6-0
2014: 80-4-11
2016: 71-5-15

So that's -16% (!) for the ANC in 5 years in North West in the townships, with all of it to the EFF

4/ Special note: North West is critical to the EFF.

- 280 000 (22%) of it's total 2016 vote tally came from North West
- And there's still more soft non-ANC vote in the townships for the EFF to target (in addition to continually syphoning off the ANC as well)

5/ So what to expect? In 2016, the EFF way outperformed their 2014 numbers. The by-elections show the EFF doing even better since 2016 (even after Ramaphosa's election). And the national polling has the EFF gaining - which surely must include growth in their strongest areas.

6/ So all-in-all, with best-guess assumptions for now:

ANC: Close to 60
DA: 10-15
EFF: Close to 15 (over or under)

With EFF>DA, most likely

7/ Important note on these expectations: If this comes to pass, it would have been -8% for the ANC (down from 68) since 2014 and despite Ramaphosa's election.

North West municipalities looking like soft oppo targets for 2021 local gov election if that's the case.

8/ As always, a DISCLAIMER: This is based on unscientific 'best-guesses' for various unknown variables, informed by polling and by-elections. Not a formal prediction.