In 10 mins or so the French PM Jean Castex will say whether there will be any changes in the second half of France’s minimum one month-long Second Lockdown. Some schools to close? Some shops to open? The betting is on “no change”.
This will disappoint/anger owners of “non essential” shops who are desperate to reopen as soon as possible. There may be extra compo for them to soften the pain.
Is lockdown working? There are signs that the activity of the virus is slowing. The R or Reproduction rate – how many people 1 Covid carrier infects – has fallen below 1 (to 0.93) for the first time since early July. The rate of positive tests is also falling – now 19.5%.
Deaths and acute cases, lagging indicators, will continue to rise for a week or more. The government view seems to be, that it’s too early to soften the rules.
We will know soon.
Will tweet main announcements but can't do a live feed. My internet connection in Normandy is too feeble and I'm too slow. See @kimwillsher1 or @LocalFR_Emma for full service.
Castex says France has suffered an additional 10,000 Covid deaths in last two months. One death in 4 in France is now due to Covid19.
More stats...long distance train trips down by 85%. 45% of private sector workers are working from home an average of 3.7 days a week. Economic activity has fallen by 12% in the second lockdown - 3 times less than in the first in the Spring.
Castex gives a new figure for the R rate - now down to between 0.8 and 0.9. But he says this is a fragile development.
News finally...Rules of confinment unchanged for the next 15 days AT LEAST.
Closed shops cannot reopen but there will be continued massive financial support for all shops and other businesses forced to close.
Enforcement of lockdown to be tightened up. More police to be mobilised, especially in Paris area and other big cities.
Some hope for shops. Castex says he hopes that some lockdown rules can be relaxed from 1 December but only for non-essential shops. This is crucial for businesses, from book shops to perfume shops, which rely on Xmas trade.
But lockdown for bars and restaurants etc will continue into December, he warns. No relaxation of rules for them, even if improvement in stats allows shops to reopen.
Sorry. Lost internet for a while. Castex's last comment was to warn that there could be no big Xmas dinners or parties this year not even on Xmas eve when the main French festivity happens.
Other ministers now speaking but those are the main points. Some hope for shops in December. None for bars, restaurants. Cheerless.

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More from @john_lichfield

1 Nov
Here is an excellent riposte to some of the wilful or ignorant nonsense from people who should no better accusing Macron of being anti muslim or playing the anti muslim card. Op-ed by a dozen or French muslim leaders praising Macron's approach.
lemonde.fr/idees/article/…
Can't translate the whole thing but it points out that Macron's speech early last month on combating extremist islamist separatism was in no way an attack on Islam.
Here are two extracts translated into English (courtesy of Google Translate.) Will post the whole thing in English if someone can tell me how to link to large chunks of text on Twitter...
Read 15 tweets
31 Oct
Greek orthodox priest shot twice and seriously injured by a gunman as he was closing his church in Lyons at 4pm this afternoon . Another djihadist attack. Not yet clear.

lefigaro.fr/actualite-fran…
Meant to put a "?" after "another djihadist attack". According to Le Progres, the local paper in Lyon, the priest is in his 40's and was attacked with a sawn-off shotgun.
Priest, who is fighting for his life, named as , Nicolas K., 52. Gunman is described as very tall - 1m 90 or around 6 feet three inches - and "of Mediterranean appearance." Djihadist attack one possibility but also, police say, it's possible that this is NOT an Islamist attack.
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Here is a new, darker Covid update for France. Individual days can be misleading so I crunch stats every 6/7 days. The trend is worrying. Cases are up sharply, including a new 24hr peak over 30,000 on Thurs. More importantly, deaths and acute cases have begun to accelerate. 1/9
The average number of Covid deaths reported daily in the last 7 days was 94.5 – compared to 62.7 the previous week, and 81.7 and 74.7 in the weeks before that. Not an explosion but a significant upward lurch. 2/9
The number of new cases in 24hrs has averaged over 20,000 in the last 7 days – 20,399 to be precise, compared to 16,035 the previous week. Earlier 7-day averages going backwards were 12,242 - 12,838 - 10,520 - 8,630. In early Aug it was 500…a 40-fold in just over 2 months.
3/9
Read 9 tweets
14 Oct
Emmanuel Macron is about to start a TV interview in which he will announce new anti Covid measures in France. A curfew in big cities including Paris? Maybe but he will probably not use that word.
"We haven't lost control but we are in a worrying situation," Macron says. "32% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid patients..." Unlike the first wave, 2nd wave is spread all over the country. There are no unaffected areas where surplus patients can be sent.
Objective is therefore to prevent health service from being overwhelmed. "Curfews are therefore a useful tool..." people will be forbidden to leave home. from 10pm to 6am in greater Paris and string of other métro areas.
Read 17 tweets
7 Oct
It’s not difficult to catch the present British government in a lie. Here is one to add to the list. It concerns one of my pet subjects – fisheries. Anyone with an intolerance to fish politics should leave here. 1/8
Last week the UK government suggested that an “historic” fishing agreement with Norway was a model for the “annual” agreements that it wishes to impose on EU fleets post-Brexit. It wasn’t. The opposite is true. It was closer to the kind of deal that Brussels is seeking. 2/8
In the D.Tel on 30 Sept, ag/fish minister George Eustice boasted that the UK-Norway Fisheries deal meant "negotiating access to waters and fishing opportunities annually.” This is a cod - misleading to the point of being mendacious. 3/8
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
Time for another French Covid update. Individual days are misleading so I have crunched stats for 7 days. The trend is mildly encouraging. All numbers are up – cases, deaths, intensive care – but the pace of increase is steady or only slightly above last week. No explosion. 1/9
These are, however, nationwide figures. The situation in some places, notably Paris, remains worrying – hence the government’s decision to trigger a “maximum alert” in the capital and shut bars, gyms but not all restaurants for at least 2 weeks. 2/9
The number of reported cases in 24 hours reached a new peak of 16,972 on Saturday but has, overall, been stable. The average of cases in the last 7 days was 12,242. The previous 7-day rate was 12,838. Before that - 10,521, then 8,630.
Topping off and flattening out? Maybe.
3/9
Read 9 tweets

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