Here is a new, darker Covid update for France. Individual days can be misleading so I crunch stats every 6/7 days. The trend is worrying. Cases are up sharply, including a new 24hr peak over 30,000 on Thurs. More importantly, deaths and acute cases have begun to accelerate. 1/9
The average number of Covid deaths reported daily in the last 7 days was 94.5 – compared to 62.7 the previous week, and 81.7 and 74.7 in the weeks before that. Not an explosion but a significant upward lurch. 2/9
The number of new cases in 24hrs has averaged over 20,000 in the last 7 days – 20,399 to be precise, compared to 16,035 the previous week. Earlier 7-day averages going backwards were 12,242 - 12,838 - 10,520 - 8,630. In early Aug it was 500…a 40-fold in just over 2 months.
The number of C19 cases in intensive care reached 1,800 yesterday, compared to 1,456 a week ago. This is an average increase of 57.3 a day, compared around 35 in the two previous weeks. Not an explosion but… 4/9
Something like 35% of ICU capacity nationwide is now filled with C19 patients. In the Paris area, it is 47% and rising. There are fears that the capital’s hospitals may be overwhelmed by the middle of next month. 5/9
The figures explain why the govt decided last week to impose 9pm-6am curfews on greater Paris and 8 other metro areas for 4-6 weeks from today. Unlike March-April when large parts of S and W France, rural and urban, were scarcely touched, the 2nd wave has mostly hit cities. 6/9
It remains the case, however, that the 2nd Wave stats have a quite different shape to those of the First Wave. Deaths and acute cases are starting to accelerate, reflecting the boom in cases which began in mid-Aug. But the rise is relentless rather than exponential - so far. 7/9
In March-April deaths went from 0 to a peak over 1,000 a day in 3 weeks. ICU occupation from 0 to 7,200 ditto. Experts argue over this difference. Treatment methods have improved certainly. Others cling to the view that virus has become less vicious. 8/9
Depressing….but still no need for panic.


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More from @john_lichfield

14 Oct
Emmanuel Macron is about to start a TV interview in which he will announce new anti Covid measures in France. A curfew in big cities including Paris? Maybe but he will probably not use that word.
"We haven't lost control but we are in a worrying situation," Macron says. "32% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid patients..." Unlike the first wave, 2nd wave is spread all over the country. There are no unaffected areas where surplus patients can be sent.
Objective is therefore to prevent health service from being overwhelmed. "Curfews are therefore a useful tool..." people will be forbidden to leave home. from 10pm to 6am in greater Paris and string of other métro areas.
Read 17 tweets
7 Oct
It’s not difficult to catch the present British government in a lie. Here is one to add to the list. It concerns one of my pet subjects – fisheries. Anyone with an intolerance to fish politics should leave here. 1/8
Last week the UK government suggested that an “historic” fishing agreement with Norway was a model for the “annual” agreements that it wishes to impose on EU fleets post-Brexit. It wasn’t. The opposite is true. It was closer to the kind of deal that Brussels is seeking. 2/8
In the D.Tel on 30 Sept, ag/fish minister George Eustice boasted that the UK-Norway Fisheries deal meant "negotiating access to waters and fishing opportunities annually.” This is a cod - misleading to the point of being mendacious. 3/8…
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
Time for another French Covid update. Individual days are misleading so I have crunched stats for 7 days. The trend is mildly encouraging. All numbers are up – cases, deaths, intensive care – but the pace of increase is steady or only slightly above last week. No explosion. 1/9
These are, however, nationwide figures. The situation in some places, notably Paris, remains worrying – hence the government’s decision to trigger a “maximum alert” in the capital and shut bars, gyms but not all restaurants for at least 2 weeks. 2/9
The number of reported cases in 24 hours reached a new peak of 16,972 on Saturday but has, overall, been stable. The average of cases in the last 7 days was 12,242. The previous 7-day rate was 12,838. Before that - 10,521, then 8,630.
Topping off and flattening out? Maybe.
Read 9 tweets
23 Sep
Here is another French Covid update. There have been 6 days since my last thread. The trend remains steadily upwards in cases, deaths and net admissions to intensive care. But there is no sign - yet - of the steep climb in deaths and acute cases that France saw in March. 1/12
The number of new cases each day is accelerating and reached new peaks of over 13,000 on two successive days last Fri and Sat. The mortality rate – now averaging 43.4 a day – is also rising but certainly not exploding. More figures later. 2/12
The French government’s attitude is still to hold-the-line, wait-and-see but impose local restrictions. They are being either heroically calm or culpably slow. Compare the stringent new national rules imposed in the UK. This is definitely a reversal of roles since March. 3/12.
Read 12 tweets
16 Sep
Time for another French Covid numbers update. There have been 7 days of figures since my last thread. The trend remains worrying but not yet alarming. The numbers of cases, deaths and hospital patients are growing steadily but not – yet – exploding as they did in late March. 1/7
The government – or rather mostly Emmanuel Macron in person, according to Le Monde – thinks that drastic new action to control the strengthening pandemic is a/ not yet needed and b/ might be counter-productive. Government strategy is “wait and see” plus local crackdowns 2/7
There were 9,784 new cases in the 24hrs up to 2pm today, after three days when the stats fell into the 6 to 8,000 range. The rolling average for the last 7 days is 8,755, compared to 7,320 a week ago and 5,518 the week before that. Rising…not exploding 3/7
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
Second Covid wave or not, the Gilets Jaunes (yellow vests) plan a mass return to French streets and roundabouts today. By 11am there had been 68 pre-demo arrests in Paris, mostly for carrying weapons or missiles. Marches are also planned in provincial cities. 1/7
Other promised/or threatened GJ “mass returns” this summer have fizzled out. This one, planned for weeks, is likely to be bigger – and more violent. Police anticipate at least 5,000 people in Paris, including 1,000 “black block” hard-left militia types.
To recap, Gilet Jaunes gave up their demos in March after 71 weekends - starting as a broad protest against high fuel taxes, the political elite etc and becoming something sectarian/anti-capitalist. Numbers dwindled to very few before Covid forced diehards off the streets. 3/7
Read 13 tweets

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