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Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
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12 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#CPSMicrodataDay
The good news is that the rate in which employed workers are going directly into *permanent* layoff has fallen, though is still elevated [left].

The bad news is that the rate at which already-nonemployed workers are *becoming* permanent layoffs is high and rising [right]. ImageImage
Meanwhile, hourly wage growth among workers keeping their jobs is stable [L], but weekly wage growth has fallen [R], a sign that employed workers are getting fewer hours. ImageImage
And a rising share of workers aren't seeing any nominal wage growth at all. Image

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More from @ernietedeschi

Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
12 Nov
The benefit cliff on December 31 is an economic setback when we least need one -- the winter months when businesses in many of the areas of the country will have a harder time staying open -- not to mention devastating for the affected workers.
Unlike the 7/31 expiration of the emergency $600/week FPUC, which was larger in aggregate dollar terms than this cliff, the 12/31 cliff will cut a deeper wound, because for many workers they won't get *any* aid after expiration; they still got base benefits when the FPUC expired.
It's less likely too that prior savings will be there to sustain the spending of unemployed workers; they've been drawing down their savings since the expiration of the $300/week LWA in mid-September. Many workers are likely to have exhausted their pandemic savings by New Year's.
Read 4 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
8 Oct
We're past the point where the problem is liquidity -- muni market frictions appear to have subsided, & the Fed has a credit facility aimed at regional governments.

The problem is that state & local revenue bases are collapsing & they legally have to balance their budgets.
The risks we face now actually played out in 2009 & 2010: state & local governments had to make deep cuts (purple bar below in the @BrookingsEcon measure), which became a drag on the then-nascent economic recovery.
If anything, the moral hazard argument around state & local aid cuts the *other* way from how opponents often make it:

The states that did the *right* thing with COVID restrictions likely saw deeper revenue hits, & that may be making them more hesitant to do the right thing now.
Read 5 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
6 Oct
@mikemadowitz and I had a productive conversation about this data.

It turns out, the disparity in marriage employment *counts* is mostly an artifact of something else going on in the household survey entirely. /1
Namely, look at what's happened to the number of married men and women reported in the household survey during the pandemic: a rapid rise in February, and then a fall after June. /2 Image
So a great deal of the declines in employment *counts* for married men and women in the household survey is explained by the declines in just the number of married people the survey shows in the first place. /3
Read 15 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
2 Oct
Jobs Day, September 2020
Jobs growth came in at +661K in Sept, but the labor market is losing momentum. We're still 10.7 mil jobs short of Feb employment, & 12.1 mil short of our pre-COVID trajectory. At Sept's pace, it will take us 17 mon to get back to Feb emp, & 26 mon to get back to pre-COVID trend.
That 10.7 million job loss since February means that overall employment is still down -7% since then. In the leisure & hospitality industry, it's still down **-23%**.
Read 7 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
1 Oct
A short thread on what to expect from tomorrow's jobs report.

TL;DR: two metrics that have done well in predicting employment so far are telling two different stories: one a significant deceleration from August, the other a big acceleration. /1
Two high-frequency employment metrics from private companies--one from Homebase, one from Kronos--have generally followed each other so far this recession.

But in August, the two started diverging significantly. Homebase is on the left, Kronos is on the right. /2 ImageImage
Homebase data has flatlined in recent weeks. Pairing their data with UI claims yields a forecast of +290K jobs in September, not seasonally adjusted.

Kronos meanwhile has accelerated. Using them instead leads to a +2.4 million forecast.

For reference, August was +1.4 million /3 Image
Read 14 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
28 Sep
In case you're curious, half of all American tax units paid more than $750 in federal individual income tax in 2019, even after credits. Image
By the way, @TaxPolicyCenter defines a "tax unit" as "an individual, or a married couple, that files a tax return or would file a tax return if their income were high enough, along with all dependents of that individual or married couple." taxpolicycenter.org/resources/tpcs….
Some folks seem surprised that half of American families pay *less than* $750. Some things to bear in mind:

- This chart does not include payroll taxes
- This *does* include tax credits like the EITC & Child Tax Credit
- This includes nonfilers with income too low to pay taxes.
Read 4 tweets

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