1/7 h/t @AlbertBridgeCap

I do not come from money. The only reason I could even dream of coming from Bangladesh to the US for my MBA was I could get 100% of my tuition financed by student loan without any co-signor (I don't have any relative in the US).
2/7 Wholesale cancel of student loans creates the same kind of unintended consequence as canceling standardized tests does.

Most kids from my background go to schools that people in the US have never heard about even though acceptance rate in some of the schools back home is <5%
3/7 When standardized tests are canceled, it's hard to stand out with our no-name schools and lack of well curated extra-curricular filled resume.

I know they aren't talking about canceling student loans of international students, and they shouldn't.
4/7 I always wonder why people never talk about how many millions of people changed their life trajectory thanks to student loans.

The avg. starting base salary from our MBA class was $130K. It doesn't include signing bonus, and annual bonuses.
5/7 I cannot understand why an average American should subsidize anyone who is perfectly capable of repaying the loan.

I am against the wholesale cancel of student loan (even if it's up to a certain amount).
6/7 I know student loan can be terrible for some people.

~30% people drop out of college after freshman year. Many of them take loans. It's a double whammy for them. They earn less than college kids, yet have the burden of debt.

40% college grads are underemployed.
7/7 These are real problems, and if you want to look for solutions, ask the difficult questions. Avoid the road that seems pretty convenient right now.

Canceling the loan wholesale doesn't address the reason that led to this issue.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

14 Nov
1/7 Thread: Why this isn't dot-com bubble

I had this Polen Capital think piece open in a tab for months. I finally read it tonight.

Polen shares some interesting data points to argue how much the current cycle differs from the tech bubble.
2/7 From 2008-2019, Russell 1000 Growth Index (R1G) beat Russell 1000 Value Index (R1V) by >300%.

There was another era when such wide margin between them existed. It was 1988-1999.

We all know how that ended. So our pattern matching brain is tempted to infer the parallel.
3/7 Unlike the tech bubble which was propped by multiple expansion, Polen argues much of the outperformance in the current cycle is driven by fundamentals.

These two images comparing the two cycles make that case. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
1/ Thread: Is the market too short-term or too long-term oriented?

The question probably sounds a bit rhetorical since the overwhelming consensus seems to be that Mr. Market is too short-term oriented. I'm not so sure.

Let me explain.
2/ BVP Emerging Cloud Index today closed at 17.9x EV/Revenue multiple.

High multiples fundamentally imply long growth runway and extended period of competitive moat for a long time.
3/ Doesn't market's willingness to ignore profitability in the short-term to give companies the time to ultimately dominate the industry in the long run indicate investors are playing the long game?
Read 10 tweets
9 Nov
1/ Notes from @anuhariharan episode at @InvestLikeBest

This one is packed with quality qualitative insights, most of which are also backed by numbers. The whole conversation makes me optimistic about the future.

Here are my notes.
2/ Good point about looking at tech businesses in terms of functions, and not in terms of industries; makes you think a good tech analyst probably has more transferable skillset than other sector analysts.
3/ The pitch for DoorDash which is expected to IPO before the end of the year.

Interesting how most investors seriously overestimate winner-take-all (or most) possibility in a market when most markets have usually room for 3/4 players, especially since end markets are so large.
Read 13 tweets
6 Nov
1/ Thread: $UBER 3Q’2020 Earnings Update

If you have been following me for a while, you know I haven’t been bullish on $UBER.

Mr. Market has so far disagreed with me. It’s up 20% in the last two months.

Let’s see how this quarter went.
2/ Rides was down 50% YoY. Take rates down ~290 bps QoQ. Adj EBITDA is coming back strongly from last quarter.
3/ Is Mobility segment improving in October? Not much.

In October, Mobility was ~$28 Bn run-rate bookings. For context, in 2019, it was $49.7 Bn.
Read 14 tweets
2 Nov
1/ Notes from @Rich_Barton and @altcap episode at @InvestLikeBest

This was a wide range of conversation touching on many different topics. Let's start.
2/ First, a pitch for SPAC
3/ Loved this mental model of BHAG: Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal.
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Thread: $GOOG 3Q'20 Earnings Update

$GOOG has been a laggard among the Big Tech for quite some time. But not yesterday!

Among the Big Tech, the stock had the best reaction (+6.5%) to earnings in after-hours.
2/ $GOOG will break out Cloud as a separate segment from Q4, and they will also report ’18, ’19, and ’20 annual number along with profitability next quarter.

Usually a good sign when company wants to provide more disclosure; generally an indicator of driving a better narrative.
3/ In the last quarter,

Total Revenue +14%

Search +6%; YouTube ads +32%; Network ad revenue +9%

GCP +45%

Other revenues +35% driven by YouTube non-ad revenues and Play

Operating Margin ~24% Image
Read 9 tweets

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