Thread by @perreaux

I have questions (and anxieties!) about closing Quebec schools for a month over the winter break. 1/
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…

I understand why closing schools is tempting. Quebec has had an extended lockdown banning social visits and closing almost all recreational and entertainment activity. All we got is a month-long plateau in new cases at a high level followed now by the start of another rise. 2/

Deaths and hospitalizations are steadily rising. Something has to break and the government does not want to close more commercial activity, where 54% of outbreaks take place, compared to 15% for educational institutions.
3/

When Quebec started counting school cases, students and staff immediately accounted for 16% of the province's weekly new cases. That appears to be close to a baseline share. /4

But the most recent data does show schools cases are both rising and increasing in share of cases. Other data show outbreaks with multiple cases within schools have also increased in Quebec in recent weeks. So there’s trouble to address. /5

But even with schools in greater trouble, they still account for 20 per cent of cases. What will closing schools do to address the other 80 per cent, much of which is workplaces, LTC and households? /6

If kids and teachers go home for a month but come back to school in January still carrying 16% of cases, as they did following the summer break, how much will a winter vacation help crack the wave? /7

How likely is it those outbreaks won't just happen elsewhere with time off during holiday time?
What happens with children in families with no time off? Grandparents? Babysitters? Pooled childcare among friends? Possibly counterproductive. /8

Schools are often crowded and stuffy, but they are among the few controlled and monitored environments we have. When contact tracing broke down this fall, school cases were still getting tested, traced and isolated. That is lost with a shut-down. /9

I do see some potential value in a break, though:

First, I have no doubt teachers, administrators and staff need a rest. /10

Stalling for time may be a good idea. If vaccine distribution happens in 2021, is it better to extend time off now and do more school later, if possible?

Maybe extra time can help with the air quality assessments and work that may happen. (We shall see.) /11

The question on every parent's mind: What happens if cases remain high after a month because many have socialized through the holidays and everybody is still working. Another month off to little end? This is my worry. Inertia is powerful. /12

I'm not sure a month of makeshift vacation and childcare is going to have the desired effect on the pandemic curve.

But it's quite likely nobody really knows, so maybe it is worth a try. And in the end at least it should relieve pressure on burdened schools. /end