The #RCEP agreement is being signed this weekend. Eight years in the making, it’s not just another FTA: it will fundamentally remake the economic, strategic and institutional architectures of the Indo-Pacific. My 10-step mega-thread on everything you need to know about RCEP:
2. RCEP is an historic achievement. It will be the largest regional trade bloc in existence, delivered against the hostile backdrops of COVID and trade warfare. It shows the Indo-Pacific is “open for business”, and leads the world on economic openness. asiasociety.org/australia/look…
3. RCEP will redraw the Indo-Pacific strategic map. By providing a single set of economic rules, its 15 members will prioritise integration amongst themselves. It will also change the calculus of many governments towards US-China decoupling. aspistrategist.org.au/rcep-will-redr…
4. RCEP will be critical for the region's post-COVID recovery. It is designed as a "value chain friendly" agreement, which will help restart the trade and investment links that drive the Indo-Pacific's economic dynamism. asiasociety.org/australia/look…
5. Contra to conventional wisdom RCEP is not a “China-led” agreement, but belongs to the entire region. Indeed, it will bind China into a multilateral and rules-based model for economic cooperation, constraining its preference for ad hoc bilateralism. aspistrategist.org.au/rcep-will-redr…
6. RCEP is not an alternative or competitor to the TPP. The two mega-regional FTAs fundamentally pursue different objectives, and are in fact complementary. Countries can - and indeed should! - join both. internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutl…
7. RCEP marks Vietnam's emergence as a regional leader. Vietnam - the 2020 ASEAN Chair - has managed to midwife the agreement despite huge political and economic headwinds. It should now be recognised as a systemically significant middle power. internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutl…
8. India's withdrawal from RCEP leaves a major gap, and perpetuates its exclusion from Indo-Pacific economic integration. But RCEP contains an accession mechanism that enables new members to join after ratification. India should be first on board. lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…
9. RCEP has revealed that Japan is now the 'kingmaker' for trade deals in Asia. Just as Japan salvaged the TPP following Trump's withdrawal of the US, so too did it keep RCEP on track following Indian withdrawal last year. thediplomat.com/2019/12/has-ja…
10. RCEP will jumpstart Australia's 'reconnection' with the region following COVID interruptions. For the first time, Australia will be part of rules-based, and genuinely regional, Indo-Pacific economic institution from day one. canberratimes.com.au/story/7002480/…
And that's all folks. Any more questions on RCEP? Jump into the comments and let me know. AMA.
Postcript - Fun RCEP factoid: RCEP was first mooted in 2000 by the East Asia Vision Group, formed by ASEAN in the wake of the AFC. It's taken two decades and another two crises since, but we finally got there.
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