Attitudes to Covid (weekly memo 32)
- Vaccine seen as best news of the year so far by most
- How to address challenges of 'vaccine hesitancy'
- Anti-lockdown party won't replicate pro-Brexit coalition
- Gloomy economic views, especially among minorities britishfuture.org/wp-content/upl…
Comprehensive and concise overview of initial responses to the vaccine news in this @JLPartnersPolls survey published in the Mail
The vaccine hesitant are more likely to be the young rather than old, as this YouGov snap survey captures. Just 6% of the over 65s wouldn't take it, but closer to 1/6 or 1/5 of younger groups doubt that they would. yougov.co.uk/topics/health/…
General faith in vaccines fell during the year of the pandemic in west, report Ipsos-Mori (September data) - esp where Covid and science became partisan divides (USA, Italy). France an outlier for high vaccine scepticism. UK narrower - but with challenges. ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-…
How to engage with 'vaccine hesitancy': timely report from British Academy and Royal Society recommends the public communication and local engagement strategies needed to secure an 80% take-up of a vaccine thebritishacademy.ac.uk/news/vaccine-h…
The vaccine has generated more medium-term optimism: only 11% of people think back to normal by Spring is realistic. Three-quarters don't (YouGov)
The age demographics of Covid scepticism are a cross-pressure and barrier to mobilising a pro-Brexit coalition against lockdown, complicating Nigel Farage's ability to engage the anti-lockdown minority. But one third of that quarter of the public are with him on both fronts.
A third of people are worried about losing their job, rising to 4/10 ethnic minority respondents, report YouGov
Interesting snippet from Accenture report on ethnic minority employee's perceptions of responses to anti-racism protests. Own employers rated good (4/10) or OK (4/10) more often than poor (2/10). Mixed on general business response & sceptical about govt and media.
(n = 426)
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Maybe this will be proven wrong, but I think Cummings attempts to damage govt would backfire, esp by personal attacks, because he was never of the party tribe, so going nuclear would strengthen idea they are better off without him.
A challenge on content of betraying Brexit could have a stronger constituency.
But Cummings with Johnson had VL govt with chance to deliver it, so betrayal charge raises questions about promises made
+ DC has terrible personal relations with half of the hardest Brexit group.
The Cummings paradox is that the central thesis of the Odyseean project blog was mostly that the British state is currently incapable of undertaking any strategic task on the scale of Brexit, or of delivering it.
The CNN complete map. It's clear that President-elect Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th. My hunch is that Donald Trump will also eventually acknowledge that, though perhaps he will wait until the EC vote on Dec 14th to do so.
Some process left.
- Recounts. But no chance of affecting margins.
- Court cases. Contentless to date, still open if had any substance
- Persuade red state legislatures that went blue to choose a different slate. (Not legal post-election. Politically imposs)
- Faithless electors
38 faithless Biden electors choosing to switch is the one constitutional route to Trump retaining the Presidency (as long as does not bribe or induce them to do so), if the Democrat state parties have somehow chosen dozens of delegates who want Trump to remain in office!
This is the second time in just over a month and the third time ever (Czechoslovakia, 1961) that a Scotland game has gone to extra-time. Scotland just won their only ever penalty shoot out, against Israel in October play-off semi-final