The CNN complete map. It's clear that President-elect Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th. My hunch is that Donald Trump will also eventually acknowledge that, though perhaps he will wait until the EC vote on Dec 14th to do so.
Some process left.
- Recounts. But no chance of affecting margins.
- Court cases. Contentless to date, still open if had any substance
- Persuade red state legislatures that went blue to choose a different slate. (Not legal post-election. Politically imposs)
- Faithless electors
38 faithless Biden electors choosing to switch is the one constitutional route to Trump retaining the Presidency (as long as does not bribe or induce them to do so), if the Democrat state parties have somehow chosen dozens of delegates who want Trump to remain in office!
Many of these stalwart Democrats would go down as hard to reach on an initial GOP canvass
There were 9 faithless electors across the whole 1948-2012 period, so it's odd that 10 electors chose to make various idiosyncratic gestures in the 2016 process
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless…
* The idea of flipping many specific Biden electors is obviously an absurd hypothesis.
* We may hear more about State Legislatures replacing EC slates with their own choice. That is not legal, post-election. It is not plausible if it were legal.
Authoritative account of the legal position of the EC slates, once chosen by popular vote in the state

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More from @sundersays

14 Nov
The Trump White House are claiming a million protestors today
AP have "thousands" but no detail on numbers
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Maybe this will be proven wrong, but I think Cummings attempts to damage govt would backfire, esp by personal attacks, because he was never of the party tribe, so going nuclear would strengthen idea they are better off without him.
A challenge on content of betraying Brexit could have a stronger constituency.

But Cummings with Johnson had VL govt with chance to deliver it, so betrayal charge raises questions about promises made
+ DC has terrible personal relations with half of the hardest Brexit group.
The Cummings paradox is that the central thesis of the Odyseean project blog was mostly that the British state is currently incapable of undertaking any strategic task on the scale of Brexit, or of delivering it.
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Attitudes to Covid (weekly memo 32)
- Vaccine seen as best news of the year so far by most
- How to address challenges of 'vaccine hesitancy'
- Anti-lockdown party won't replicate pro-Brexit coalition
- Gloomy economic views, especially among minorities
britishfuture.org/wp-content/upl…
Comprehensive and concise overview of initial responses to the vaccine news in this @JLPartnersPolls survey published in the Mail
The vaccine hesitant are more likely to be the young rather than old, as this YouGov snap survey captures. Just 6% of the over 65s wouldn't take it, but closer to 1/6 or 1/5 of younger groups doubt that they would. yougov.co.uk/topics/health/…
Read 9 tweets
13 Nov
A new @yougov poll of ethnic minorities in Times Red Box this morning

nuk-tnl-deck-email.s3.amazonaws.com/2/289df84d2600…
Aggregate party image and politician perceptions
Policy priorities
Read 8 tweets
12 Nov
England v Scotland
Wembley stadium, Euro 2021
8pm, Friday 18th June 2021
Euro 2021 group D, played at Wembley and Hampden Park.
Will have to watch this again. Scotland are the better side for much of the second half, until the penalty miss

Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
This is the second time in just over a month and the third time ever (Czechoslovakia, 1961) that a Scotland game has gone to extra-time. Scotland just won their only ever penalty shoot out, against Israel in October play-off semi-final
Scotland will need to draw on their 100% penalty shoot-out record.

(They look unlikely to have the lucky omen of Northern Ireland once again taking penalties simultaneously this time)
This is tense now ...
Read 4 tweets

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