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13 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Arizona has now been called for Joe Biden- he’s the first Democrat to win it since 1996. Georgia is outstanding, pending the hand recount. V difficult to see Biden’s margin of 14000+. Trump likely to win NC.

So Biden will flip/is likely to flip 5 states and NE2. Heading for 306.
To be clear, flipping Arizona is a big, big deal. It’s been a GOP stronghold for a long, long time. The home of Barry Goldwater and of course, John McCain. It’s voted Democratic only twice since 1948.
Question(and worry) for Republicans is whether this is just a blip, spurred partially by Trump’s attitude to their favourite son McCain or whether it’s about longer term demographic change, making AZ more like other states in the region which have been trending Democratic.
Given what’s been happening in Senate races and the like, I’d say it’s more of the latter.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
13 Nov
UPDATE: Georgia has now been called for Biden. First Democrat to have carried the state since 1992

The map is complete. Final tally 306-232. Exact mirror image of 2016. Image
Last Democrat to carry both Arizona and Georgia was Harry Truman in 1948. Image
Reminder, this is how one of the President’s top advisers described the President’s 2016 306-232 win.
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
12 Nov
So if Dominic Cummings is to leave at Christmas the quite considerable political capital the PM spent over Barnard Castle (not to mention what many believe was quite considerable damage to public health messaging) was for roughly seven months.
So either the PM really REALLY thought it was all worth it for Mr Cummings’ contribution for those seven months or it wasn’t actually the plan for him to go all along at Christmas.
In January, Mr Cummings’ wrote his infamous “weirdos and misfits” blog in which he stipulated candidates must be willing to commit to “at least 2 years.” Seems an odd thing to ask for if the plan was for he himself to leave at Christmas.
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
12 Nov
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH CARE HOME VISITS?

There is so much heartache among care home families right now. In many cases, some haven't seen their loved ones since the spring. Those that have have done so at a distance, haven't even been able to hold their hands.

What's going on?
For obvious reasons visiting this year has been limited. What happened in spring was a disaster. Rightly, the onus has been on preventing it happening again.

But there's a cost. The huge psychological impact on families and as I've reported before, the health of those in care.
The govt recognised this and had promised new guidelines to allow visitation. These were published last week. The PM said the govt's guidance would: "strike the right balance between people’s real need to see their loved ones and the risk of spreading the disease in care homes."
Read 21 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
12 Nov
Tempting to think what happening in Downing St was the most important political story of the day. I’d counter that the more important story is this👇
Dark whispers have abounded throughout the pandemic that a series of local authorities are at breaking point and on brink of S114. Everyone familiar with LA finance is wondering which might be next and what govt might do. Real and potentially massive impact on people’s lives.
Even Croydon on its own terms is a big story. It has a population of 380k. Would be 11th biggest city in Britain if it weren’t part Greater London. It’s council is now effectively bankrupt.
Read 6 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
11 Nov
Important, important story. Croydon Council issues Section 114 notice (local authority equivalent of bankruptcy). Its finances were somewhat parlous going into 2020 but the impact of the virus on revenues plus extra covid spending has finished it off. bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Lots of anxious heads in local government across the country tonight wondering which council might be next. Lots of councils are on the edge.
Leader of Croydon Council 👇
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
11 Nov
.@BorisJohnson: "One of the many merits of the excellent conversation I had yesterday with President Elect @JoeBiden, was that we both strongly agreed on the need for the UK and the US to stand together to stick up for our values around the world."
"To stand up for free trade, to stand up for @NATO, to fight climate change...it was refreshing to have that conversation, I hope to have many more."
.@BorisJohnson asked by @angelaeagle whether he has advice for his "erstwhile best friend" @realDonaldTrump: "I had and have a good relationship with the prev president, I don't resile from that. It is the duty of all British PMs to have a good relationship with The White House"
Read 4 tweets

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